Analysts projected fractional decline in U.S. production. Regional crop estimates pondered. Slight increase in world crop expected.

Cotton futures settled modestly higher in another round of heavy trading Tuesday amid positioning ahead of U.S. and world supply-demand estimates. Traders awaited results of the U.S. presidential election.

Spot December closed up 30 points to 68.75 cents, trading within a 192-point range from down 26 points at 68.19 to up 166 points at 70.11 cents. It surged to a six-session high before slipping to close in the lower third of the range.

March, which has taken the open interest lead, closed up 24 points to 69.34 cents, in the lower half of its 187-point range from 68.83 to 70.70 cents. December 2017 settled up 43 points to 69.43 cents.

Volume was estimated at a huge 61,780 lots, up from 59,882 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for a whopping 47,883 lots or 80%, EFS 1,500 lots and EFP 90 lots. Options volume totaled 3,167 calls and 4,606 puts.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated U.S. production at an average of 15.98 million bales, down fractionally from USDAΆs October forecast of 16.034 million bales.

Estimates ranged from 15.78 million to 16.3 million bales. Analysts estimated exports at an average of 12.1 million bales and ending stocks at 4.24 million bales, compared with USDAΆs 12 million and 4.3 million bales, respectively. The ranges were 12 million to 12.3 million bales for exports and 4 million to 4.5 million bales for the carryout.

The USDA report is set for release at 11 a.m. CST on Wednesday.

A question among some analysts is whether a reduced crop in the Southeast may be offset by higher production in the Southwest, especially Texas, and the Delta.

The USDA last month forecast the crop in the Southwest at 7.1 million bales, a million bales above last season, with a larger cotton area more than offsetting a lower yield. Abandonment remained low at 7%, compared with 6% last season and a 10-year average of 29%. Yields were estimated at 609 pounds, compared with the prior three-year average of 637 pounds.

In the Southeast, production was forecast at 4.3 million bales, up from last seasonΆs relatively modest 3.787 million but 500,000 bales below the five-year average. Higher yields of 963 pounds, the second highest on record, accounted for the production increase, but damage from Hurricane Matthew wasnΆt reflected in the October estimate.

The projected Delta crop of 3.3 million bales was up from last yearΆs historically low 2.037 million bales but near the five-year average. Cotton area rebounded in 2016 as alternative crops looked less favorable. Yields were projected at the second highest on record at 1,090 pounds.

In the West, the upland crop estimate of 677,000 bales, though up from last seasonΆs 502,000, still ranked as one of the lowest in the last 80 years. Higher area and yield both remained below five-year averages.

Last monthΆs projected U.S. extra-long staple or Pima production — grown mainly in the West — of 562,000 bales was up from 433,000 bales last year but similar to the 2014 crop.

Globally, slightly higher production and little change in consumption are expected to result in modestly higher ending stocks. India, the worldΆs largest cotton producer, is projected by the Foreign Agricultural Service post there to harvest 27 million bales, up 500,000 bales from USDAΆs October forecast.

The USDA projected world ending stocks to decline 10% from the prior season to 87.3 million bales. With back-to-back reductions projected for the first time in seven seasons, global stocks would drop to the lowest since 2011-12 as China continues to reduce surplus supplies accumulated during the 2011-14 seasons.

Futures open interest fell 2,580 lots Monday to 246,271, with DecemberΆs down 13,746 lots to 96,990 and MarchΆs up 9,287 lots to 103,722. This marked the first time that MarchΆs OI has topped DecemberΆs. Cert stocks dropped 175 bales to 42,020. There were 265 newly certified bales and 440 bales decertified.