Weekly export report eyed. U.S. market share expected to expand significantly in many countries to achieve what would be the largest cotton exports since 2010-11 and the fourth largest on record.
Cotton futures finished a tight-range session on modest losses across the board Wednesday, with soon-to-mature May completing an inside day.
May, where options expire Thursday, settled down 28 points to 74.73 cents, spending the session within a 58-point range from up 15 points at 75.16 to down 43 points at 74.58 cents.
July dipped 20 points to close at 76.23 cents, trading within a 72-point range from 76.78 to 76.06 cents. December eased 16 points to settle at 73.20 cents, trading within a 61-point range from 72.97 to 73.58 cents.
Volume declined to an estimated 53,988 lots from 66,266 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 40,781 lots or 62%, EFS 3,225 lots and EFP 722 lots. Options volume slipped to 4,529 lots (2,828 calls and 1,701 puts) from 7,512 lots (4,671 calls and 2,841 puts).
Traders awaited USDAΆs weekly U.S. export sales-shipments report to measure against the 800,000-bale jump to 14 million statistical bales or roughly 13.58 million running bales in its April supply-demand estimates.
The forecast is for a 53% increase from the previous season. With global trade expected to rise by less than 4% and with stable import forecasts for major markets, U.S. market share will have to expand significantly in many countries for the forecast to be achieved.
The U.S. share of world trade is projected at 39%, up from 26% last season and the highest in six years.
In a circular on world markets and trade, USDAΆs Foreign Agricultural Service says available customs data from countries that account for more than two-thirds of total world imports shows that the U.S. share in those markets from August through December was 36%, compared with 27% in the corresponding period a year earlier.
This is in line with the overall increase in U.S. trade share indicated in this monthΆs forecast. Higher U.S. market share is indicated in nearly all U.S. markets with data reported, with an exceptional increase in Taiwan, FAS says.
The U.S. share of ChinaΆs imports has rebounded remarkably from 11% last year — the lowest in more than two decades — to 35%, which is reported in line with the historical average.
For major markets where there is no timely customs data (specifically Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh), reported U.S. exports for the August-February period are up by more than 140%, even though total imports by those countries are expected to show a much lower rate of growth, FAS says.
That also supports the strong growth in U.S. global market share. If achieved, the export forecast would be the fourth largest on record and the largest since 2010-11.
The export performance, achieved on the back of competitive U.S. high quality cotton availability and shipment dependability, has come with the Cotlook A Index of world values and U.S. spot prices having ended March off slightly from earlier in the month when prices were the highest in nearly three years.
U.S. upland export sales for the four-week period ended March 30 totaled 1.307 million running bales for a weekly average of 326,800 RB. Upland shipments totaled 1.559 million RB and averaged 389,700 RB.
Futures open interest declined 1,111 lots Tuesday to 250,988, with MayΆs down 10,698 lots to 60,258, JulyΆs up 7,645 lots to 95,571 and DecemberΆs up 1,743 lots to 83,797.
Certified stocks dropped 2,991 bales to 325,062. There were 1,145 newly certified bales and 4,136 bales decertified. Awaiting review were 2,602 bales at Galveston.
