Decline expected in U.S. weekly export sales. Shipments will get attention. ChinaΆs 2014-15 imports forecast to fall to 6.4 million bales.

Cotton futures fell to session lows in the late going and settled with modest losses Wednesday.

Spot March settled off 30 points to 88.37 cents, in the lower third of its 133-point range from up 64 points at 89.31 to down 69 points at 87.98 cents. The high was its highest intraday price since Aug. 19.

Most-active May settled off 35 points to 88.85 cents, trading from up 47 points at 89.67 — a new high — to down 69 points at 88.51 cents, while July dipped 27 points to 87.94 cents and December eased seven ticks to 78.32 cents. July also posted a new intraday high.

Shorts seeking to roll out of March seem not to have been having an easy time, even in the face of ongoing index fund rolls of longs and a continued buildup in cert stocks. It seems odd that the spread appears not to have reflected more of the fund activity, an analyst said.

With a holiday for PresidentsΆ Day on Monday, first notice day for March deliveries now is only six trading days ahead.

Volume rose to an estimated 48,100 lots from 44,617 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 27,653 lots, EFP 80 lots and EFS 40 lots. Options volume totaled 6,207 calls and 3,715 puts.

A decline in U.S. export sales is expected in the USDA report scheduled for release at 7:30 a.m. CST Thursday for the week ended Feb. 6.

China and some other cotton importing countries were on holiday for the Lunar New Year during a reporting week in which March futures closed from 85.01 to 86.31 cents and settlements averaged 85.62 cents. Intraday prices ranged from 84.76 to 86.69 cents.

Attention will be paid to shipments. While shipments have quickened to crop year highs the previous two weeks, some analysts have speculated that USDA might have left its February export estimate unchanged this week largely because shipments werenΆt higher at this point in the season.

Upland sales were 179,800 running bales during the week ended Jan. 30 and shipments were 358,600 bales. Four-week upland averages have been about 344,900 bales for sales and about 279,000 bales for shipments.

Looking ahead, ChinaΆs 2014-15 imports are projected at 6.4 million bales by the National Cotton Council, down about 42% from 11 million bales forecast for this season.

With a projected 58.3 million bales of stocks on hand at the beginning of the 2014 marketing year on Aug. 1, China will have more than ample supplies to satisfy an expected production shortfall, council economists pointed out in an economic outlook report.

In theory, China wouldnΆt need to import any cotton. However, thatΆs of course not expected to be the case. China must open 4.1 million bales of import quota at a minimal duty to comply with its World Trade Organization accession commitments.

And itΆs expected that some amounts of quota beyond that will be made available for the processing trade. If realized, the overall imports would be the smallest in a dozen years.

China, the leading buyer of 2013-crop cotton on purchases of 2.179 million statistical bales or 24% of total commitments, hasnΆt booked any U.S. cotton for shipment next season. South Korea is the top 2014-crop buyer, booking 138,000 statistical bales or 29%.

Futures open interest expanded 2,137 lots Tuesday to 178,951, with MarchΆs down 6,804 lots to 53,278 and MayΆs up 7,602 lots to 75,051. Certificated stocks grew 7,072 bales to 242,888.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index gained 120 points Wednesday morning to 95.35 cents. The premium to TuesdayΆs March futures settlement narrowed 10 points to 6.68 cents.