U.S. all-cotton commitments moved fractionally over 100% of the USDA export forecast and topped year-ago bookings by 69%. Exports stand 74% ahead of a year ago. Prospective plantings report eyed.
Cotton futures finished a session of tight trading ranges mixed Thursday, up nine points to down 50 points, as another round of stellar weekly export sales and shipments offered support for old-crop deliveries.
Spot May posted the only gain, settling at 76.23 cents. It spent the entire session within a mere 44-point range, from down four points at 76.10 cents — even with WednesdayΆs low — to up 40 points at 76.54 cents.
July eased three points to settle at 77.60 cents, trading within a 42-point range from 77.48 to 77.90 cents. December finished down 41 points to 73.69 cents, its lowest close since Feb. 2 and just off the low of its 46-point range from 74.10 to 73.64 cents.
Volume slipped to an estimated 28,071 lots from 30,286 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 12,354 lots or 41%, EFP 252 lots and EFS 161 lots. Options volume increased to 7,858 lots (5,869 calls and 1,989 puts) from 4,833 lots (2,229 calls and 2,654 puts).
U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 402,400 running bales during the week ended last Thursday, up from 338,200 RB the prior week, brought 2016-17 commitments to 12.853 million RB.
Commitments, including outstanding sales of 4.431 million RB plus shipments, moved fractionally over 100% of the USDA export forecast and topped year-ago bookings by 5.259 million RB or 69%. A year ago, commitments were 85% of final shipments.
All-cotton shipments of 402,100 RB, up from 394,400 RB the previous week, boosted the total for the season to 8.265 million RB, up 3.525 million RB or 74% from year-ago exports. Shipments reached 64% of the USDA estimate, compared with 53% of final 2015-16 exports at the corresponding point last season.
Conjecture grew that USDA again likely will increase its export forecast by a sizable amount in its next monthly supply-demand forecast. To achieve the current projection, shipments need to average roughly 252,200 RB a week for the 18 weeks remaining in the marketing year.
Sales for shipment next season of 85,200 RB raised sales for both crop years to 487,600 RB. Commitments for 2017-18 rose to 1.711 million RB, up 58% from forward bookings a year ago of 1.082 million RB.
Expectations for an increase in USDAΆs prospective plantings report, scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT on Friday, and end-of-month positioning vied with the robust export report for trader attention.
Estimates on U.S. all-cotton plantings appear to have ranged mostly from about 11.4 million to 11.9 million acres, with a tilt toward the upper end. This would compare with 10.07 million acres planted last year and a preliminary forecast of 11.5 million acres at USDAΆs Outlook Forum in February.
Futures open interest fell 2,116 lots Thursday to 279,537, with MayΆs down 5,178 lots to 140,955, JulyΆs up 1,844 lots to 57,056 and DecemberΆs up 1,202 lots to 4,137.
Certified stocks declined 5,091 bales to 321,350. There were 1,170 newly certified bales and 7,071 bales decertified, all at Dallas-Fort Worth. No cotton awaited review.
