May closed at lowest finish since March 5. China announced a target price for the pilot area above expectations. U.S. upland growers had contracted about 3% of their expected acres by March 31.
Cotton futures fell to a nine-session low and closed near there Monday, settling in the red for the fifth time in six trading days.
Spot May lost 178 points to close at 90.62 cents, a tick below the March 24 settlement for its lowest finish since March 5. It spanned a 233-point trading span, from up 46 points at 92.86 cents to down 187 points at 90.53 cents.
An apparent lack of business over the weekend as buyers refused to chase the market may have contributed to the setback. July lost 150 points to close at 91.17 cents, four ticks off the low of its 194-point range, and December eased eight points to 79.84 cents.
Volume rose to an electronically estimated 31,299 lots from 24,618 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 11,643 lots or 47% and EFP 34 lots.
China announced a higher-than-expected target price of 19,800 yuan per metric ton for the 2014 crop in the Xinjiang pilot area, the largest cotton-producing region.
This would be expected to encourage production. Growers will sell at market prices and the government will pay growers a subsidy when their selling price is below the target. No payment will be made if the farm price is above the target level.
Policy details havenΆt been announced for other pilot areas. China announced earlier that it was ending its controversial stockpiling program established in 2011. Stocks in China at the end of this marketing year are projected at 60% of an all-time high world carryout.
While other details are yet to come, the new cotton policy would seem likely to have the net effect of stimulating consumption of domestic cotton at the expense of imports, observers say.
China, the worldΆs largest cotton consumer and importer, is the largest import buyer of U.S. cotton. Through March 27, China had purchased 2.225 million statistical bales or 23% of U.S. 2013-14 all-cotton export sales.
On the U.S. crop scene, upland growers had contracted about 3% of their expected acreage by the end of March, down from 10% a year ago and the smallest percentage since 2009 when they had booked only 1%.
The estimate is based on the National Agricultural Statistics ServiceΆs March prospective plantings report and informal surveys by the cotton division of the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Growers reported upland planting intentions of 10.943 million acres, up 7.2% from last yearΆs 10.206 million acres.
Contracting has been most active in the Southeast where growers have booked 9% of an intended 2.602 million acres, down from 27% a year ago.
Producers have booked 4% of a prospective 1.44 million acres in the Mid-South, down from 14% last year, and 1% of an intended 6.656 million acres in the Southwest, even with a year ago. No contracting was reported on the intended 245,000 upland acres in the West.
Seedlings have emerged in the Rio Grande Valley, traditional source of the nationΆs first new-crop upland supplies. About 131,200 acres had been planted by late last week of an expected 150,000, estimates by the Texas Boll Weevil Eradication indicated. Growers there planted 115,000 acres last year.
Cool, damp conditions delayed planting last week in the Texas Upper Coast and Winter Garden. Fieldwork was completed in the Blackland Prairies and producers hoped for more rain ahead of planting.
Futures open interest gained 1,043 lots Friday to 184,587, with MayΆs down 781 lots to 82,098, JulyΆs up 938 lots to 55,747 and DecemberΆs up 740 lots to 42,336.
Certificated stocks grew 1,097 bales to 265,398, a two-day increase of 10,992 bales. The growth could be symptomatic of the weak physical basis.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index gained 90 points Monday morning to 95.60 cents, resulting in the premium to FridayΆs May futures settlement narrowing 52 points to 3.20 cents.