DTN Cotton Close: Nearby Contracts Slightly Ahead

DTN Cotton Close: Nearby Contracts Slightly Ahead

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U.S. export commitments reached 97% of the USDA forecast. Shipments widened the lead over exports a year ago to 1.551 million running bales.

Cotton futures closed modestly ahead in nearby contracts Thursday, supported by brisk U.S. weekly export sales and shipments, a weak dollar index and oversold momentum readings.

Benchmark July edged up 28 points to close at 83.23 cents, in the lower half of its inside-day range from unchanged on the opening at 82.95 to up 92 points at 83.87 cents. Maturing May closed up 23 points to 81.33 cents.

New-crop December eased off 14 points to settle at 83.28 cents, six ticks off the low of its 79-point range from 84.01 to 83.22 cents. It has closed lower three sessions in a row.

Volume slowed to an estimated 16,700 lots from 33,282 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 6,961 lots or 21%, EFS 50 lots and EFP 365 lots. Options volume totaled 6,540 calls and 4,469 puts.

U.S. all-cotton weekly export sales for delivery this season rose to 245,000 running bales from 226,200 the previous week, boosting 2012-13 commitments to 12.253 million RB.

Commitments widened the lead over sales a year ago to 637,600 bales and reached 97% of the USDA forecast. At the corresponding point last season, commitments were about 2% more than final shipments.

Outstanding optional-origin commitments fell 42,400 bales to 174,800. Options were exercised to export 11,600 bales of U.S. cotton and 30,800 bales from other than the United States, all to China.

The remaining optional-origin sales include 153,400 bales for China, 18,000 for South Korea, 3,100 for Thailand and 300 for Vietnam.

All-cotton shipments of 350,700 bales, against the previous weekΆs third highest of the marketing year of 423,000 bales, raised the total for the season to 9.309 million RB.

The lead over year-ago shipments widened to 1.551 million RB and totaled 74% of the USDA projection. A year ago, shipments totaled 68% of final exports. To achieve the estimate, shipments need to average roughly 235,800 RB a week.

All-cotton sales of 32,900 bales for delivery next season, down from 36,000 the week before, brought 2013-14 commitments to 1.369 million. Total new-crop bookings are 340,000 bales ahead of forward sales a year ago.

On the international scene, a new China Cotton Association survey has indicated plantings in the worldΆs largest cotton producer could decline 6.4% from last year. The survey was conducted prior to announcement of the state procurement plan for next year.

Futures open interest fell 4,788 lots Wednesday to 165,768, with MayΆs down 255 lots to 639, JulyΆs down 6,090 lots to 111,319 and DecemberΆs up 1,570 lots to 51,370.

Certificated stocks grew 2,113 bales to 507,272, a new high since June 2010. There were 2,114 newly certified bales, one bale decertified and 2,790 bales awaiting review.

The Cotlook A Index of world values fell 130 points Thursday morning to 90.60 cents. This widened the index premium to WednesdayΆs July futures settlement by 85 points to 7.65 cents.

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