DTN Cotton Close: New High for the Move

DTN Cotton Close: New High for the Move

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Demand has remained robust in the face of rising prices on sales from ChinaΆs reserve stockpile. Scorching heat persists on the Texas Plains.

Cotton futures touched daily limit gains for a second session and finished on new high closes for the move on a huge turnover Wednesday.

Most-active December closed up 237 points to 73.15 cents, in the upper half of its 379-point range from up 21 points at 70.99 to up the expanded 400-point limit at 74.78 cents. It printed the highest intraday price on its weekly chart since July 11, 2014.

Prices posted intraday limit gains in the front three contracts, with nearby October settling up 224 points to 73.38 cents and March closing up 194 points to 72.78 cents.

Volume rose to an estimated 65,821 lots from 54,236 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 11,355 lots or 21%, EFS 57 lots and EFP 15 lots. Options volume totaled 20,288 calls and 22,677 puts.

Traders have noted reports that demand has remained robust in the face of rising prices for cotton offered at ongoing auctions from ChinaΆs huge government reserves.

Sales reached 1.184 million metric tons (5.4 million 480-pound bales) as of July 8, with more than 97% of the offerings finding buyers, USDAΆs Foreign Agricultural Service said in a world markets and trade report.

All the cotton offered since June 28 has been sold. Domestic cotton has accounted for nearly all the offerings in recent weeks. Early commentary suggested strong purchases in early May could have been driven by the large imported volumes on offer, but continuing high sales with only domestic offerings indicate demand is more broadly based.

The base sales price has risen steadily and has reached just under 90 cents per pound. Even at that higher level, the base price remains less than the tariff-rated quota duty and value-added-tax-inclusive import price of many available West African, Australian and U.S. growths.

This was considered a sign that prices could move still higher if demand persists. Even with sales prices well above initial levels and above what many observers had expected prior to the auctions, import demand hasnΆt shown any appreciable move upwards.

Thus, while strong reserve sales have shown significant domestic demand and tight supply availability prior to the actions, USDA hasnΆt seen enough evidence of sufficient demand to markedly increase imports.

The China Cotton Textile Association is reported to have urged larger daily sales offerings, an extension of the auctions beyond the scheduled end on Aug. 31 and the allocation of more import quotas.

Volumes offered and resulting sales remain at levels consistent with the officially announced 2-million-ton sales target being met just before the end-of-August cutoff.

With strong auction sales continuing and other market data indicating more mill use than previously thought, USDA revised its consumption forecasts for China up substantially.

Mill use estimates for the worldΆs largest cotton consumer rose from a month ago by 1.5 million bales to 34 million for 2015-16 and by a like amount to 35 million for 2016-17.

On the weather scene, scorching temperatures have persisted on the Texas High and Rolling Plains. The high is forecast at 106 degrees today at Lubbock, a degree from the date record set in 1933. This followed an all-time July high of 109 degrees tied last on Thursday, a record date high of 108 degrees on Monday and 107 degrees on Tuesday.

Most cotton, a hot weather plant, appears to have tolerated the heat fairly well thus far on the High Plains. But much of the crop is just on the verge of or just entering the bloom stage when moisture use begins rising sharply, and most irrigation wells wonΆt be able to keep up with water demand without supplemental rain.

Futures open interest grew 11,969 lots Tuesday to 209,897, with DecemberΆs up 10,562 to 170,969 and MarchΆs up 292 lots to 24,489. Certified stocks declined 1,871 bales to 131,653.

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