DTN Cotton Close: Old-Crop Continues Lower

DTN Cotton Close: Old-Crop Continues Lower

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U.S. cotton plantings increase of 10.5% foreseen by USDA. Prices for most row crops expected to fall in 2014-15.

Cotton futures settled mixed in slower dealings Thursday, down in old-crop deliveries and up in active new-crop contracts.

Most-active May closed down 26 points to 87.65 cents, a nine-session low finish and in the lower quarter of its tight 79-point range from up 34 points at 88.25 to down 45 points at 87.46 cents.

The spot March contract lost 60 points to close at 86.37 cents and July fell 40 points to 87.43 cents, while December gained 20 points to 77.99 cents.

Volume slowed to an estimated 20,100 lots from a 31,689 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 16,724 lots or 53%, EFP 915 lots and EFS 91 lots. Options volume totaled 1,877 calls and 3,733 puts.

U.S. cotton planting is forecast at 11.5 million acres, up 10.5% from last season, USDA chief economist Joe Glauber said at the opening of the agencyΆs annual Outlook Forum.

The projection compares with 11.26 million acres foreseen in a month-long planting intentions survey completed in mid-January by the National Cotton Council and reported at the NCCΆs annual meeting early this month.

Glauber said the farm price for 2014-crop cotton is forecast to fall to 68 cents. In its supply-demand report earlier this month, USDA projected an average farm price for 2013-crop cotton this marketing year at a midpoint of 76 cents, up from 72.50 cents in 2012-13.

Detailed cotton projections, including a production outlook, will be released Friday at the forum in Arlington, Va. The NCC forecast all-cotton production at 16.37 million bales, up from the current 2013-crop estimate of 13.19 million.

Glauber said farmers will plant more soybeans, cotton and rice this year, mostly at the expense of corn, other feed grains and wheat.

“Prices for most row crops are expected to fall to the lowest levels since 2009-10,” he said, adding that a return to normal yields could see soybeans and corn set new production records.

Meanwhile, traders awaited USDAΆs weekly export sales-shipments report, delayed until Friday by the PresidentsΆ Day holiday on Monday. The report for the week ended Feb. 13 will be scanned for signs of demand after China returned from Lunar New Year celebrations.

Sales, which for upland and Pima combined for the season already have reached 88% of the USDA estimate, are expected to show a decrease from the previous weekΆs upland bookings for shipment this season of 120,300 bales.

All-cotton shipments have averaged around 329,000 running bales a week the last four weeks — above the average needed to reach the USDA estimate — and upland exports have averaged about 308,800 bales.

Futures open interest declined 3,242 lots Wednesday to 168,307, lowest of the year, with MarchΆs down 6,399 lots to 6,393 and MarchΆs up 1,337 lots to 104,083.

Certificated stocks edged up 69 bales to 250,675, largest since July. Awaiting review were 1,345 bales.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index fell 160 points Thursday morning to 94.15 cents. The index premium to WednesdayΆs May futures settlement narrowed three points to 6.24 cents.

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