DTN Cotton Close: Recoups FridayΆs Losses

DTN Cotton Close: Recoups FridayΆs Losses

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Informa pegged U.S. crop at 13.14 million bales. A BCO survey indicated ChinaΆs cotton area may fall 9%. U.S. upland classing reached 89% of the crop estimate. Some fields remained unpicked in the Southeast.

Cotton futures recouped much of the previous sessionΆs closing loss to finish with a moderate gain Monday.

Benchmark March settled up 69 points to 83.63 cents, in the upper quarter of its 114-point range from down 28 points at 82.66 cents — a six session low — to up 86 points at 83.80 cents — shy of FridayΆs high.

The May contract gained 68 points to 83.61 cents, July rose 56 points to 83.48 cents and December added 40 points to 78.56 cents.

Volume slowed to a board-estimated 13,700 lots from a cleared 20,097 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 7,548 lots or 38% and EFP for 160 lots.

U.S. cotton production is estimated at 13.14 million bales by Informa Economics, Memphis-based analytical firm, up 540,000 bales from USDAΆs December forecast, sources said.

Informa raised its estimate of the harvested area by 89,000 acres from the USDA December estimate of 7.78 million acres, sources said, and boosted the crop estimate for Georgia by 100,000 bales to 2.45 million.

The USDA will release its updated U.S. and world supply-demand estimates at 11 a.m. CST on Friday.

Typically, little change is seen from the final January crop estimate to the annual report in May on production, acreage and yields. But some analysts wouldnΆt be surprised if larger revisions are made this year because of the late harvest.

Looking ahead, a survey by Beijing Cotton Outlook is said to have indicated that ChinaΆs cotton area may decline by as much as 9% in 2014-15 to 4.209 million hectares or 10.401 million acres.

Assuming average yields, production would be reduced 7% to 11% to 6 million to 6.31 million metric tons or to 27.56 million to 28.98 million 480-pound net weight bales.

On the U.S. crop scene, classing of upland cotton slowed to 399,575 running bales during the week ended Jan. 2 from 459,909 bales the previous week, hiking the total for the season to 10.793 million bales.

Cotton classed for the season reached about 89% of USDAΆs December upland crop estimate. Tenderable cotton slipped to 55.8% for the week and 62.6% for the season, against 59.3% and 62.8%, respectively the prior week. A year ago, 58.5% for the season met tenderable requirements.

Harvesting was mostly completed in the Southeast, but some fields remained unpicked in areas of substantial rainfall in recent weeks, said the cotton division of USDAΆs Agricultural Marketing Service.

Ginning slowed over the holidays but regained momentum entering January. Several gins finished operations in South Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas.

Up to 4 inches of rain fell throughout the North Delta. Harvesting was virtually completed and only a small amount of cotton remained to be ginned. Up to 2 inches of rain were reported in the South Delta.

In Texas, two gins continued operations in the Upper Coast. Up to 4 inches of beneficial rain fell over the last two weeks in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Producers were encouraged by improved subsoil moisture.

Harvesting in the West Texas Plains neared completion except for the Rolling Plains. About 70% of gins were closed for the season. Both the Lubbock and Lamesa offices on the High Plains reduced classing operations to one shift. Classing reached 90% of estimates.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions prevailed in cotton-growing areas of the Desert Southwest and in CaliforniaΆs San Joaquin Valley. Ginning was an estimated 85% done in Arizona.

Futures open interest gained 485 lots Friday to 173,626, with MarchΆs down 294 lots to 111,430 and MayΆs up 475 lots to 34,161. Certificated stocks grew 86 bales to 34,173.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index fell 100 points Monday morning to 88.10 cents. The premium to FridayΆs March futures settlement widened 10 points to 5.16 cents.

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