DTN Cotton Close: Reverses off New High to Move Lower

DTN Cotton Close: Reverses off New High to Move Lower

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Analysts projected U.S. exports at an average of 10.6 million bales and ending stocks at 2.8 million bales. Mills priced 1,089 May-July lots to trim their unpriced position to a still large 46,650 lots.

Cotton futures settled with a modest loss amid profit-taking after hitting a new high for the move Friday.

Benchmark May closed off 34 points to 91.27 cents, in the lower quarter of its 254-point range from up 174 points at 93.35 to down 80 points at 90.81 cents. It hit a new two-year high for May, stalling just shy of a late August 93.40 intraday price on a weekly continuous chart, and then it retreated choppily into the close and ticked last at 90.86.

The March contract expired at a 25-point discount to May, July closed down 34 points to 90.37 cents and December slipped 23 points to 79.32 cents. For the week, the market gained 443 points in March, 413 points in May, 348 points in July and 150 points in December.

Volume slowed to an estimated 29,900 lots from 35,171 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 11,277 lots or 32% and EFP 252 lots. Options volume totaled 10,053 calls and 7,837 puts.

Cotton analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projected U.S. 2013-14 exports at an average of 10.6 million bales and ending stocks at 2.8 million bales.

The USDA last month forecast exports at 10.5 million bales and the carryout at 3 million bales. It will update its U.S. and world supply-demand estimates in a report set for release at 11 a.m. CDT Monday.

Analysts estimated exports within a range from 10.5 million to 10.9 million bales and ending stocks from 2.6 million to 2.9 million bales. They projected production at an average of 13.1 million bales, against USDAΆs 13.2 million, within a range from 12.9 million to unchanged.

The USDA is considered unlikely to change its crop estimate until after the end-of-season ginning report on March 25, but the latest available ginning and classing figures suggested final production would come in shy of the January tally.

The journal survey didnΆt produce an estimate of domestic mill consumption, projected by USDA in February at 3.6 million bales.

Meanwhile, mills priced 1,089 lots in May and July combined last week to reduce their unfixed on-call position in the two old-crop contracts to a still large 46,650 lots.

Producers priced 347 May-July lots, trimming their unfixed holdings there to 4,791 lots, according to the latest call data from the Commodity Futures Trading commission.

The mill-producer fixations trimmed the net call difference by 742 lots to 41,859 (4.186 million bales), which represented 31.5% of the May-July open interest, little changed from the prior weekΆs 31.3%.

The ratio of the unpriced mill position to that of producers edged up to 9.74:1 from 9.29:1. Mills have bought a lot of old-crop cotton on-call and waited to price it on a scale-down basis.

Futures open interest jumped 8,964 lots to 174,791 on ThursdayΆs price surge, with MayΆs up 5,554 lots to 108,320, JulyΆs up 1,685 lots to 34,916 and DecemberΆs up 1,259 lots to 29,483.

Certificated stocks grew 78 bales to 258,139. There were 96 newly certified bales, 18 bales decertified and 2,215 bales awaiting review. Cert stocks a week ago were 255,451 bales.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index surged 300 points Friday morning to 97.55 cents, matching ThursdayΆs jump in May futures to leave the index premium unchanged at 5.95 cents. For the week, the index gained 490 points.

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