U.S. all-cotton export commitments stand at 55% of the USDA forecast. Widespread rain up to 2-plus inches fell on the Texas Plains and more expected. Hail damaged cotton around OΆDonnell.
Cotton futures, unable to build on gains after hitting a three-session high, retreated to a new low for the move Thursday and finished in the lower quarter of the dayΆs range.
Spot December settled down 53 points to 68.07 cents, its lowest close since Oct. 11. It traded within a 137-point range from up 59 points at 69.19 to down 78 points at 67.82 cents. DecemberΆs open interest coming into the session had lost 16,833 lots from a week ago amid fund rolling and long liquidation.
March dropped 45 points to close at 68.68 cents, while December 2017 dipped 25 points to finish at 68.65 cents.
Volume rose to an estimated 33,294 lots from 29,381 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 17,774 lots or 61%, EFP 107 lots and EFS eight lots. Options volume totaled 3,391 calls and 2,398 puts.
The market showed muted initial reaction to USDAΆs weekly export sales report. Net all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 162,600 running bales during the week ended last Thursday, up from 136,600 RB the previous week, brought 2016-17 commitments to 6.384 million RB.
Upland net sales of 160,400 RB, up 24% from the previous week but down 25% from the four-week average, came in near the lower end of some expectations.
Overall commitments — outstanding sales of 4.178 million RB plus shipments — were up 2.56 million RB or 67% from year-ago bookings and were 55% of the USDA export forecast. A year ago, commitments were 41% of final 2015-16 shipments.
All-cotton shipments of 134,600 RB, little changed from the prior weekΆs 135,800 RB, hiked exports for the season to 2.207 million RB, up 793,000 from a year ago. Shipments were 19% of the USDA estimate, compared with 16% of final exports a year ago.
To achieve the USDA projection, shipments now need to average roughly 235,800 RB a week, while weekly sales averaging around 131,400 RB would match the export forecast.
Upland sales of 6,000 RB for shipment next season, the first in five weeks, nudged 2017-18 commitments to 434,100 RB, down 158,100 RB from forward bookings a year ago.
On the weather front, widespread 24-hour rainfall totals to 8 a.m. CDT in the Texas High Plains cotton area ranged from 0.20 of an inch at Muleshoe west of Lubbock to 1.6 inches at Crosbyton to the east.
Those amounts were on the National Weather ServiceΆs cooperative reporting sites, which also showed up to 2.75 inches in the nearby Rolling Plains east of the Caprock.
Hail severely damaged some cotton in the OΆDonnell area south of Lubbock. Texas TechΆs West Texas Mesonet site in that area registered 2.09 inches of rain.
All the reporting NWS sites got rain. Amounts of an inch or more at selective sites also included 1.36 at Brownfield, 1.3 at Denver City, 1.22 at Lamesa, 1.29 at Levelland, 1.22 at Plains and 1.30 at Tahoka.
Light rain continued Thursday morning in the Lubbock area and was expected to decrease later in the day. Chances for additional showers were 30% tonight and 40% Friday, with thunderstorm chances rising to 60% Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances will linger into early next week.
Futures open interest declined 1,716 lots Wednesday to 255,548, with DecemberΆs down 5,585 lots to 122,384 and MarchΆs up 2,765 lots to 90,777. Cert stocks grew 2,984 bales to 38,555. There were 3,424 newly certified bales and 440 bales decertified.
