Cotton Gives Back Prior DayΆs Gain
U.S. 2015-16 export commitments edged up to 37% of the USDA forecast, compared with 54% of final 2014-15 shipments a year ago. U.S. economic growth cooled sharply in the third quarter.
Cotton futures finished modestly lower Thursday, giving back the previous dayΆs gain as U.S. weekly export sales and shipments remained below the pace needed to reach the USDA forecast.
Spot December settled down 35 points to 62.32 cents, in the lower quarter of its tight 76-point range from up 25 points at 62.92 to down 51 points at 62.16 cents. March closed down 25 points to 62.21 cents.
Volume rose to an estimated 22,500 lots from 17,206 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 55% and EFP 32 lots. Options volume totaled 3,043 calls and 1,503 puts.
All-cotton weekly export sales for shipment this season of 79,100 running bales, down from 104,000 the previous week, brought 2015-16 commitments to 3.663 million RB.
Commitments edged up to 37% of the USDA forecast, compared with 54% of final 2014-15 exports at the corresponding point last season. Cumulative sales lagged behind year-ago commitments by 2.233 million RB.
All-cotton shipments of 74,500 RB, up from 65,500 RB the week before, nudged the total for the season to 1.247 million RB, slightly widening the lead over year-ago exports to 1.246 million RB.
Shipments were about 13% of the USDA forecast, compared with about 10% of final 2014-15 exports a year ago.
To achieve the USDA projection, shipments now need to average roughly 210,900 RB a week, while weekly sales averaging approximately 152,000 RB would match the export forecast.
Sales for shipment next season slipped to 6,000 bales from 9,300 bales the prior week, bringing 2016-17 commitments to 548,500 bales. The lead over forward bookings a year ago narrowed to 95,500 bales.
In economic news, U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, cooled sharply in the third quarter, advancing at a 1.5% annual rate as businesses let inventories dwindle.
Economic growth slowed from a 3.9% rate in the second quarter, but solid domestic demand and internals of the Commerce Department report were viewed by some economists as leaving on the table a possible interest rate hike as early as December as hinted by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. demand, increased at a 3.2% rate in the third quarter, compared with a 3.6% advance during the prior three months. The recent gain was led by strong spending on long-lasting goods, including vehicles.
Futures open interest increased 1,343 lots Wednesday to 199,699, with DecemberΆs down 696 lots to 109,240 and MarchΆs up 1,550 lots to 66,646. Cert stocks grew 458 bales to 47,132. There were 1,222 newly certified bales, 764 decertified bales and 3,873 bales awaiting review.
