Cotton futures settled at a four-session low close Monday in benchmark December, which finished below the inside-range lows of the prior two days.
December closed down 51 points to 63.84 cents, just off the low of its 97-point range from up 40 points at 64.75 — the high touched on the overnight opening — to down 57 points at 63.78 cents. It settled back below its nine-day moving average after having closed above that mark three sessions in a row and in five of the last six.
Electronically estimated volume totaled 10,000-plus lots, against a final 10,445 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 3,310 lots, EFS 441 lots and EFP eight lots.
Active harvesting of Lower Rio Grande Valley cotton has solidified prospects for “a bountiful, successful crop,” according to a report quoting Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service agents.
This crop is shaping up to be a big turnaround from last year, said Brad Cowan, extension agent for Hidalgo County, noting that a lot of dryland cotton has yielded up to two bales per acre. And thereΆs a potential for irrigated cotton of 3 to 3.5 bales an acre, he added.
The Texas field office of USDAΆs National Agricultural Statistics Service projected a valley crop of 285,000 bales, based on conditions around Aug. 1, up from only 78,500 bales last year. The valley crop is the traditional source of the nationΆs first new-crop supplies.
Growers planted 150,000 acres, up from 92,000 acres last year, and are expected to harvest 135,000 acres, up from 37,800, for an average yield of 1,013 pounds, up from 997 pounds.
“We had rains that started last year during harvest and into September, then more in the wintertime and spring,” Cowan said. “Because of all the rain, it was a challenge to harvest last yearΆs crop, but that rain helped replenish deep soil moisture that we desperately needed.
“ItΆs one reason our current crop is looking really good and has lot of potential,” he added.
Danielle Sekula-Ortiz, extension integrated pest management agent in Weslaco, said insects werenΆt a major problem this year. The crop got off to a late start because of rainfall early in the planting period.
“We had some pest problems early in the season, like fleahoppers during squaring, but other than that it was a pretty light pest season,” she said. That was good, she said, because many growers had to spray for sugarcane aphids in grain sorghum.
The Corpus Christi classing office graded 71,347 bales during the week ended Thursday, boosting the total for the season to 93,609 bales. A year ago, the office had classed only 17,758 bales for the season.
Cotton tenderable on futures contracts totaled 75.3% for the week and 73.1% for the season. Staple lengths for the season averaged 34.5, with 52.2% stapling 35 or longer, while the weekly classing averaged 34.7 and 57% pulled 1-3/32nds inches or more.
A possible concern, Cowan said, is the lack of a bottom crop, referring to bolls on the bottoms of plants. This could be attributed to early pest infestations or cool weather early in the season, he said.
“Sometimes the loss of bolls on the bottom branches will be made up for with heavier loads on the upper branches, but weΆll just have to see the end figures after harvest,” Cowan said.
Producers harvested dryland cotton ahead of the irrigated crop. Estimates indicated the harvest was around 35% complete near the end of last week.
Futures open interest gained 381 lots Friday to 166,779, with DecemberΆs down 562 lots to 114,312 and MarchΆs up 872 lots to 41,978. Cert stocks were unchanged at 90,197 bales.
World prices as measured by the Cotlook A Index fell 50 points Monday morning to 73.60 cents, narrowing the premium to FridayΆs December futures settlement by 18 points to 9.25 cents.
