Traders looked ahead to USDAΆs weekly export report. Overall domestic cotton consumption as measured by mill use plus net textile imports grew 4% in 2015. Strong winds kicked up dust on the Texas Plains.
Cotton futures finished narrowly mixed Wednesday, confined within tight trading ranges as some inversions again widened.
Spot May settled up two points to 58.39 cents, in the upper third of its 63-point range from up 21 points at 58.58 to down 42 points at 57.95 cents. July closed down seven points at 58.10 cents and December dropped 12 points to 57.64 cents.
Volume increased to an estimated 19,540 lots from 16,402 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 7,282 lots or 44% and EFP 108 lots. Options volume totaled 4,333 calls and 959 puts.
Traders looked ahead to USDAΆs export sales-shipments report set for release at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday for the week ended March 17. Futures gained 153 points that week, basis May, which closed the period at 58.36 cents and traded from 56.49 to 58.89 cents.
Upland export sales and shipments the last four reporting weeks have averaged 173,600 running bales and 199,100 RB, respectively.
Combined 2015-16 export and domestic mill demand is forecast at the lowest in three decades, according to USDA, a result of the lowest U.S. cotton supply of 16.7 million bales — beginning stocks of 3.7 million plus the crop — since 1984-85.
The total demand forecast of 13.1 million bales is the lowest since 1985-86 when it was only 8.4 million bales. While domestic mill use remains estimated near the year-ago level, exports are forecast to decline 16% to 9.5 million statistical bales, smallest since 2000-01.
However, overall domestic cotton consumption as measured by mill use plus net textile imports grew 4% in calendar 2015 to nearly 8.7 billion raw-fiber-equivalent pounds or about 18.1 million-bale-equivalents.
The 2015 level represents the highest in five years, despite cotton having lost fiber share in apparel products recently. However, the 2015 retail cotton consumption estimate remains 20% below the record of 10.9 billion pounds set in calendar 2006.
U.S. cotton product imports and exports both moved higher in 2015. Imports grew about 4.5% to nearly 8.8 billion pounds and cotton product exports increased 3% to 1.8 billion pounds, while cotton mill use remained stable at 1.7 billion pounds.
As a result, the U.S. per capita estimate of retail cotton consumption increased nearly a pound to 27 pounds, with domestic mill use accounting for just over five pounds of the total. The 27 pounds is the highest since a similar amount was used in 2011.
On the weather scene, winds of 35 to 45 miles per hour, with gusts to 60 MPH, raked the Texas High Plains Wednesday, kicking up blowing dust and reducing visibilities to a mile or less over large areas.
Futures open interest overall was little changed Tuesday, up nine lots at 211,732, with MayΆs down 640 lots to 112,017, JulyΆs up 122 lots to 47,583 and DecemberΆs up 434 lots to 40,863. Cert stocks were unchanged at 49,067 bales.
