U.S. production and ending stocks rose slightly and world carryout increased 1.1%. Higher global production included a 500,000-bale increase for India.
Cotton futures finished lower Wednesday as traders digested USDAΆs monthly supply-demand estimates showing slightly higher U.S. production and ending stocks and a 960,000-bale hike in the world carryout.
Spot December settled down 46 points at 68.29 cents, in the lower third of its 142-point range from up 54 points at 69.29 to down 88 points at 67.87 cents. It touched the low shortly after the USDA report.
March closed down 48 points to 68.86 cents amid heavy ongoing switch trading, while December 2017 shed 72 points to settle at 68.71 cents.
Volume dipped to an estimated 60,317 lots from 61,780 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for a bulging 42,381 lots or 69%, EFS 2,268 lots and EFP 405 lots. Options volume totaled 4,268 calls and 3,188 puts.
U.S. all-cotton production is forecast at 16.162 million bales, up from the October projection of 16.034 million, with a larger Texas crop partially offset by decreases in the Southeast.
Upland production is estimated at 15.6 million bales, up 0.8% from a month ago and 25% from 2015. The projected Pima or extra-long staple crop was carried forward from last month at 562,000 bales.
Yields are expected to average 803 pounds, up six pounds from last year but below the five-year average of 822 pounds.
By regions, upland production estimates fell 310,000 bales to 4.02 million in the Southeast, edged up 30,000 bales to 3.37 million in the Mid-South, rose by 400,000 bales to 7.525 million in the Southwest and inched up 8,000 bales to 685,000 in the West.
The Texas crop, now estimated at 6.9 million bales, accounted for the increase in the Southwest. As of Sunday, 61% of the Texas crop remained on the stalk as the harvest lagged 12 percentage points behind the five-year average.
Demand estimates were unchanged at 12 million bales in exports and 3.5 million bales in domestic mill use. The market offtake of 15.5 million bales is up 23% from 12.6 million bales last season.
Ending stocks rose 200,000 bales to 4.9 million, 29% of the market offtake, up from 27.7% in October and but down from 30.2% in 2015-16.
The USDA raised its projected range for the marketing year average price received by producers on both ends to 63 to 71 cents. This put the midpoint at 67 cents, up from 64 cents in October and from the upwardly revised 2015-16 average of 61.20 cents, reflecting activity to date.
Globally, USDA upped beginning stocks 310,000 bales to 96.91 million, raised production 590,000 bales to 103.28 million and lifted ending stocks 960,000 bales or 1.1% to 88.31 million. The production hike included a 500,000-bale increase to 27 million for IndiaΆs crop.
The consumption estimate was little changed at 111.99 million bales, down 40,000 bales from October. The production shortfall narrowed 630,000 bales from October to 8.71 million.
World trade rose slightly to 35.2 million bales, reflecting a 300,000-bale increase to 4.2 million in IndiaΆs exports. IndiaΆs estimated ending stocks were raised 500,000 bales to 11.04 million.
The global carryout is estimated at 78.9% of market offtake, up from 78% in October but down from 87.1% last season.
Futures open interest expanded 2,640 lots Tuesday to 248,911, with DecemberΆs down 8,895 lots to 88,095 and MarchΆs up 9,493 lots to 113,215. Certified stocks grew 400 bales to 42,420.