Traders jockeyed for position ahead of the planted acreage report. U.S. export commitments totaled nearly 107% of the USDA estimate for 2016-17 and 33% of the forecast for 2017-18.
Cotton futures shrugged off another round of healthy U.S. weekly export sales to close lower Thursday as traders jockeyed for position ahead of USDAΆs planted acreage report.
December stayed within the prior-session range and settled down 41 points at 67.24 cents, in the lower third of its 73-point trading band from up 12 points at 67.77 to down 61 points at 67.04 cents.
March closed down 68 points to 66.61 cents, July dipped 41 points to 74 cents and October finished down 42 points to 69.05 cents.
Volume remained light at an estimated 17,641 lots, against 15,765 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 4,121 lots or 26%, EFP 186 lots and EFS 196 lots. Options volume increased to 2,989 lots (2,184 calls and 805 puts) from 2,053 lots (1,122 calls and 931 puts).
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for 2016-17 rose to an 11-week high to 262,300 running bales during the week ended last Thursday, boosting commitments to 14.992 million RB for the marketing year ending July 31.
Commitments — outstanding sales of 2.093 million RB plus shipments — widened the lead over year-ago cumulative sales by 191,000 RB to 5.784 million RB or 63%. Total sales for 2016-17 were nearly 107% of the USDA export estimate, compared with 104% of final 2015-16 shipments a year ago.
All-cotton shipments slowed to 261,100 RB, lifting the total for the season to 12.899 million RB. Shipments were up 5.152 million RB from exports a year ago and were 92% of the USDA forecast. A year ago, shipments were 87% of final exports.
To achieve the USDA estimate, shipments need to average roughly 233,200 RB for the five weeks left in the marketing year.
All-cotton new-crop sales remained strong at 584,200 RB, though down from the prior weekΆs huge 652,300 RB. Commitments for 2017-18 rose to 4.269 million RB, now 33% of USDAΆs projection. Forward sales a year ago were 13% of the current 2016-17 export estimate.
Meanwhile, published estimates have indicated a slight increase on average is expected from the March intentions in the June planted acreage report to be released by USDA at 11 a.m. CDT on Friday.
Estimates have averaged 12.278 million acres within a range from 12 million to 12.5 million acres. The March intentions of 12.233 million acres, used by USDA in its May and June production estimates, were up 21% from last yearΆs 10.075 million acres.
There wonΆt be an estimate on abandonment, which has been the subject of much conjecture, especially concerning conditions in the Texas High and Rolling Plains. Crop insurance adjusters have released some dryland acres. Thin or skimpy stands have been reported in other dryland fields. Cotton that had tapped into deep moisture was described as doing well.
Futures open interest increased 887 lots to 201,344 on Wednesday, with JulyΆs down 33 lots to 473, DecemberΆs up 297 lots to 160,224 and MarchΆs up 202 lots to 26,220.
Certified stocks declined 2,514 bales to 312,472. There were 389 newly certified bales and 2,903 bales decertified. Awaiting review were 6,447 bales at Memphis.
