By Duane Howell DTN Cotton Correspondent
Combined export sales for 2016-17 and 2017-18 totaled a net 82,700 RB, including net old-crop cancellations of 56,400 RB and new-crop sales of 139,100. Shipments have topped the USDA forecast.
Cotton futures settled mixed Thursday, down 20 to up 19 points, as traders digested weaker-than-expected U.S. weekly export sales.
December lost 18 points to settle at 70.16 cents, confined to a tight 62-point range from up 24 points at 70.58 cents to down 38 points at 69.96 cents. It printed the highest intraday price since mid-June and retreated on the USDA export sales report.
March edged up nine points to close at 70.16 cents, in the upper half of its narrow 50-point range between 69.35 and 69.85 cents. October dipped the most, closing at 71.55 cents.
Volume slipped to an estimated 18,689 lots from 25,267 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 6,910 lots or 27%. Options volume declined to 3,956 lots (2,599 calls and 1,357 puts) from 5,845 lots (3,406 calls and 2,439 puts).
Combined net U.S. all-cotton export sales for 2016-17 and 2017-18 fell to 82,700 running bales during the week ended July 27 from 265,200 RB the previous week. Net cancellations of 56,400 RB were reported for 2016-17 and net sales of 139,100 for 2017-18.
All-cotton commitments for 2016-17 totaled 15.206 million RB, up 5.565 million RB or 58% from cumulative sales a year ago and about 108% of the USDA export estimate.
Unshipped old-crop commitments at the end of the marketing year July 31 were rolled forward, swelling new-crop bookings. Outstanding sales at the end of the reporting week were 895,000 RB.
Shipments of upland and Pima combined of 284,500 RB, down from 334,700 RB the prior week, brought exports for the season to 14.311 million RB, 240,000 RB or so above the USDA forecast.
Converting running bales to statistical 480-pound bales would indicate final shipments at the recent pace could range up to 14.9 million bales, up from the USDA estimate of 14.5 million. That would reduce the carryover to 2.8 million bales from the current estimate of 3.2 million.
The stocks will be needed to meet export demand and consumption by domestic mills prior to volume movement of the new crop. Weekly crop progress reports have shown that squaring and setting of bolls are lagging the five-year averages.
Commitments for 2017-18 rose to 5.269 million RB, already 40% of the USDA forecast and up 2.525 million RB or 92% from a year ago when forward sales were about 20% of the current 2016-17 export estimate.
The July supply-demand estimates projected 2017-18 ending stocks at 5.3 million bales, largest since 2008-09 when stocks were 6.3 million bales. Updated estimates will be released by USDA next Thursday.
Futures open interest rose by 717 lots Wednesday to 217,339, with December’s down 206 lots to 155,602 and March’s up 830 lots to 43,303. Decertification of 1,535 bales dropped stocks in deliverable position to 27,577 bales.
Source: http://agfax.com/2017/08/03/dtn-cotton-close-settles-mixed-amid-export-sales-drop/
