U.S. all-cotton 2016-17 export commitments still are more than 101% of the USDA estimate and shipments have reached 81% of the forecast.
Cotton futures settled mixed Thursday, with spot July finishing modestly lower to give back the previous dayΆs slight gain plus a bit.
July closed down 38 points to 77.16 cents, just off the low of its 104-point range from up 60 points at 78.14 to down 44 points at 77.10. It touched the high on the heels of the U.S. weekly export sales report and the low around three-plus hours later. July has posted the identical low three sessions in a row. The high was the lowest high since May 10.
December edged up 14 points to close at 73.22 cents, in the upper third of its 86-point range from 72.61 to 73.47 cents. It settled just above highs of the prior two sessions. October eased a point to settle at 74.49 cents.
Volume slowed to an estimated 27,627 lots from 30,203 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 15,550 lots or 51%, EFS 114 lots and EFS 112 lots. Options volume declined to 4,095 lots (2,045 calls and 2,050 puts) from 7,616 lots (2,390 calls and 5,226 puts).
Net all-cotton export sales for shipment this season at a marketing year low of 21,800 running bales during the week ended May 18, down from 127,200 the prior week, nudged 2016-17 commitments up to 14.28 million RB.
Upland net sales of 16,200 RB came in below the low end of the range of some expectations, but cancellations of 48,000 RB also appeared well below most widely varying expectations.
Talk had circulated of cancellations hitting 100,000 RB or more, up from 61,600 RB the prior week, and possibly even exceeding new sales. Recent growth in certified stocks had been thought linked partly to sales cancellations being moved into deliverable position.
Commitments — outstanding sales of 2.859 million RB plus shipments — were up 5.644 million RB or 65% from cumulative sales a year ago and were still more than 101% of USDAΆs 2016-17 estimate. A year ago, commitments were 97% of final shipments.
All-cotton sales for shipment next season of 238,000 RB, up from 170,500 RB the week before, boosted 2017-18 commitments to 2.913 million RB, up from forward bookings a year ago of 1.362 million RB. New-crop commitments have reached 21% of the USDA export forecast, compared with forward sales a year ago totaling 10% of the current 2016-17 estimate.
Upland and Pima shipments combined of 345,800 RB, down from 399,300 RB the previous week, boosted the total for the season to 11.421 million RB. Exports stand 4.7 million RB or 70% above shipments a year ago.
Shipments are 81% of the USDA projection, compared with 76% of final 2015-16 exports at the corresponding point last season. To reach the USDA estimate, shipments need to average roughly 264,400 RB a week for the 10 weeks remaining in the marketing year.
Futures open interest dropped 546 lots to 245,931 on Wednesday, with JulyΆs down 3,494 lots to 102,591, DecemberΆs up 2,406 lots to 121,539 and MarchΆs up 286 lots to 14,324.
Certificated stocks grew 6,867 bales to 418,593. Awaiting review were 2,460 bales, including 440 at Galveston and 2,020 at Memphis. Stocks in deliverable position have grown 107,835 bales from the total posted on May 11, the day July futures launched a meteoric three-day run.
