Traders looked ahead to USDA reports on Thursday on U.S. planted acreage and on weekly export sales-shipments. Slight cut expected on average from March intentions.
Cotton futures chopped on both sides of unchanged within ranges established largely by early morning and settled narrowly mixed Wednesday.
Most-active December finished down a point to 65.85 cents, in the lower half of its 74-point range from down 29 points at 65.57 to up 45 points to a six-session high at 66.31 cents. It had established the trading band for the session by 7:20 a.m. CDT.
Other 2016-17 marketing year contracts eked out closing gains of six to nine points, with October up eight points to 66.22 cents. Old-crop July dropped 16 points to 64.50 cents.
Volume slowed to an estimated 17,841 lots from 19,565 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 3,771 lots or 19% and EFS 51 lots. Options volume totaled 2,403 calls and 2,113 puts.
Traders looked ahead to USDAΆs U.S. plantings report, scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT on Thursday. The report will include plantings as of early June and estimates of any remaining cotton to be planted.
Trade estimates have ranged from 9.3 million to 9.75 million acres and averaged 9.541 million acres in a Reuters survey, slightly below March intentions of 9.562 million acres and up 11.2% from 8.581 million acres seeded in 2015.
The March report showed intentions to plant 9.347 million acres of upland and 215,000 acres of Pima, up from last yearΆs 8.422 million acres and 159,000 acres, respectively.
Changes between the March intentions and final cotton plantings have averaged 620,000 acres during the last 20 years, ranging from a mere 6,000 acres to 2.115 million. The intentions have been below the final estimate 11 times and above nine times.
Despite the March intentions to expand all-cotton acreage by 11% from last year, the plantings would rank as the seventh lowest on record.
Growers in all states except North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia expected to increase plantings from last year. Upland intentions reported for high-yielding California, if realized, would be a record low.
A 10.4% increase projected in Texas, the top cotton-producing state, was attributed mainly to a large acreage that didnΆt get planted in 2015 because of excessive rains. Industry sources expect cotton to gain acres from sorghum on the High Plains.
ThereΆs been considerable speculation that higher soybean prices following the March intentions survey may have pulled acres from cotton in parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.
An earlier National Cotton Council survey conducted from mid-December through mid-January showed all-cotton planting intentions of 9.105 million acres, up 6.2% from 2015.
The USDAΆs June production forecast, based on the March prospective plantings, remained at 14.8 million bales, up 15% from 2015-16. The area for harvest at 8.8 million acres reflected below-average abandonment of 8%, slightly above 6% in 2015, with yields rising to 807 pounds from 766 pounds but remaining below the five-year average of 829 pounds.
Traders also looked ahead to the weekly U.S. export sales-shipments report, set for release at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday. Upland sales the last four-weeks have averaged 117,300 running bales and upland shipments, lagging the pace needed to reach the USDA estimate, have averaged 186,700 RB.
Futures open interest gained 227 lots Tuesday to 184,257, with DecemberΆs up 44 lots to 151,531 and MarchΆs down 55 lots to 21,100. Cert stocks remained at 135,163 bales.
