U.S. all-cotton export commitments rose to 97% of the USDA estimate and shipments reached 61% of the forecast. Combined weekly sales for shipment this season and next totaled a bulging 539,600 RB.
Cotton futures completed a tight, inside-range day narrowly mixed Thursday, marginally lower in old-crop deliveries and slightly ahead in new-crop contracts.
Spot May settled down seven points to 77.27 cents, just off the low of its 74-point range from up 63 points at 77.97 cents to down 11 points at 77.23 cents. It posted the high in the overnight session and the low in the late going.
July finished down two points at 78.48 cents, also just off the low of its 67-point range from 79.10 to 78.43 cents. December opened on the session low overnight at 75 cents, climbed to 75.60 cents and settled up 33 points to 75.49 cents.
U.S. stock index futures traded slightly mixed ahead of the close there, dollar index futures ticked little changed and grains finished in the red.
Volume slowed to an estimated 19,997 lots from 29,266 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 11,794 lots or 40% and EFP 140 lots. Options volume dipped to 3,169 lots (2,477 calls and 692 puts) from 3,939 lots (2,353 calls and 1,586 puts).
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 338,300 running bales during the week ended March 16, near the prior weekΆs 340,800 RB, lifted 2016-17 commitments to 12.451 million RB.
Commitments — outstanding sales of 4.588 million RB plus shipments — reached 12.451 million RB, widening the lead over year-ago exports by 245,000 RB to 4.956 million RB or 66%. Cumulative sales were 97% of the USDA estimate, compared with 84% of final 2015-16 shipments a year ago.
All-cotton shipments of 394,400 RB, up from 346,200 RB the previous week, boosted the total for the season to 7.863 million RB, up 3.329 million RB or 73% from a year ago and 61% of the USDA forecast. A year ago, shipments were 51% of final 2015-16 exports.
To achieve the USDA projection, shipments need to average roughly 260,000 RB a week for the 19 weeks remaining in the marketing year, while sales of only around 18,600 RB would match the export estimate.
The numbers have increased conjecture that USDA will raise its export estimate in its April supply-demand report, which would be the fifth consecutive monthly boost. Export estimates have risen by 1.2 million bales the last four months and currently are projected by USDA up nearly 45% from last season.
Analysts have thought that export sales to China likely would slow with the onset of daily auctions from its huge reserve stocks, which began March 1 and are scheduled to continue through at least Aug. 31.
But China was the leading upland buyer in the latest reporting week, purchasing 98,100 RB, believed largely for blending with lower quality cotton purchased from the reserves. China remains the second largest foreign buyer U.S. cotton this season, having booked 1.969 million RB of upland and Pima combined, 16% of the 2016-17 commitments.
Sales for shipment next season of 201,300 RB, up from 144,200 RB the week before, brought weekly sales for both crop years to a bulging 539,600 RB. New-crop bookings were 579,000 RB ahead of forward sales a year ago and stood at 13% of preliminary 2017-16 forecast at last monthΆs Agricultural Outlook Forum.
Futures open interest gained 1,573 lots Wednesday to 279,703, with MayΆs down 653 lots to 155,291, JulyΆs up 936 lots to 48,468 and DecemberΆs up 1,076 lots to 67,328. Certified stocks remained unchanged for a third day at 326,221 bales.
