DTN Cotton Close: Settles on Strong Old-crop Gains

DTN Cotton Close: Settles on Strong Old-crop Gains

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Another freeze forecast for the Texas Plains. Cotton stands established in the Rio Grande Valley. Soggy conditions persisted in the Southeast. Prospects enhanced for additional cotton acres in the Delta. Hot, dry conditions prevailed in the West.

Cotton futures settled with strong gains in old-crop deliveries and a slight loss in new-crop December Monday.

Spot May settled up 189 points to 90.91 cents, a four-session high close and in the upper half of its 215-point range from up 50 points at 89.52 to up 265 points at 91.67 cents. Most-active July gained 183 points to 92.28 cents and December eased off 10 ticks to 81.37 cents.

Oversold short-term technical readings and a strong U.S. retail sales report for March contributed to the old-crop gains, with dry soils in the big cotton area on the Texas Plains helping to underpin December.

Exercised in conjunction with the expiration of May options on Friday were 6,080 calls and 3,106 puts.

Volume slowed to an estimated 27,400 lots from 45,052 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 27,575 lots or 61%, EFS 1,622 lots and EFP 40 lots. Options volume declined to 1,391 calls and 1,984 puts.

A widespread freeze is forecast for tonight on the Texas High Plains following a cold, blustery Monday and overnight lows ranging mostly the lower 20s to upper 30s. Isolated snow flurries brought no accumulations and no significant moisture was reported in the cotton area. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is foreseen for Saturday.

The low tonight is forecast at 26 degrees at Lubbock, which recorded a high of 92 degrees on Saturday. The unsettled, dry weather may discourage early cotton planting. A few producers had planned to begin planting next week if favorable weather and soil temperatures prevailed.

The traditional optimum cotton planting period on the High Plains opens May 5. Some producers have continued pre-planting irrigation and donΆt want to lose planting moisture. A mere 0.47 of an inch of precipitation has been recorded at Lubbock since Jan. 1, compared with a normal of 3.04 inches and 2.27 inches a year ago.

Elsewhere in Texas, stands have been established in the Rio Grande Valley and a quarter of an inch to an inch of precipitation enhanced early plant development, according to a weekly review by the cotton division of USDAΆs Agricultural Marketing Service.

Cool mornings caused a slight concern for seedling progress but soil temperatures rose as daytime highs warmed. Planting continued in northwestern South Texas, the Upper Coast and Winter Garden. Beneficial rain ranging from a trace to 2 inches fell in the Blackland Prairies where high winds had begun to dry some fields.

Widespread moisture fell throughout most areas of the Southeast. Producers welcomed the mostly sunny, warm forecast for the very near term, which would help dry water-logged fields and allow soft soils to firm.

Unseasonably cool, windy weather prevailed in the North Delta, with up to an inch of rain reported in isolated areas, while heavy rain brought up to 5 inches to some areas of the South Delta and enhanced prospects for additional cotton acreage because of delayed corn plantings.

Hot, dry conditions helped the crop to progress normally around Yuma, Ariz. Planting continued in Central Arizona. Less-than-optimal soil temperatures delayed planting around Safford. Producers proceeded with pre-planting irrigations.

Acreage remained uncertain in the San Joaquin Valley because of the ongoing drought. No change was made in agricultural water allocations, which remained at zero. The California Department of Water Resources reported the statewide snowpack was 32% of average on April 1.

Futures open interest fell 4,354 lots Friday to 177,939, with MayΆs down 14,041 lots to 34,949, JulyΆs up 7,023 lots to 87,672 and DecemberΆs up 2,360 lots to 50,053. Certificated stocks grew 1,186 bales to 274,856. Awaiting review were 1,902 bales.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index were steady Monday morning at 92.20 cents, leaving the premium to FridayΆs May futures settlement unchanged at 3.18 cents. The Forward A Index for 2014-15 rose 60 points to 89.70 cents.

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