Analysts projected the U.S. crop at 16.02 million bales, raised exports more than the crop increase and dropped ending stocks. U.S. export commitments topped year-ago bookings by 1.966 million bales and were 43% of the USDA projection.
Cotton futures settled slightly lower for a second day Friday as traders continued to look ahead to U.S. and world supply-demand estimates.
Benchmark December settled down 21 points to 69.08 cents, in the upper third of its 113-point range from up nine points at 69.38 to down 104 points at 68.25 cents. It gained 129 points for the week to settle on its highest weekly close since Aug. 19.
Nearby October closed down 37 points to 68.88 cents, March dropped 30 points to 69.30 and December 2017 slipped 20 points to 69.18 cents.
Gains in the U.S. dollar index and steep losses in stock markets amid reports of prospects of tighter monetary policy may have contributed to keeping cotton on the defensive.
Volume increased to an electronically estimated 18,800 lots from 12,854 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 3,757 lots or 29% and EFP 44 lots.
Cotton analysts estimated the U.S. crop at an average of 16.02 million bales in a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, up from USDAΆs August forecast of 15.88 million.
Their estimates ranged from 15.5 million to 16.35 million bales. They pegged exports at an average of 11.59 million bales within a range from 11.25 million to 11.85 million, compared with USDAΆs 11.5 million.
The analystsΆ ending stocks estimates averaged 4.42 million bales and ranged from 3.7 million to 4.85 million bales. The average was down from USDAΆs 4.7 million bales, largest since 2008-09.
The survey didnΆt include domestic consumption, estimated by USDA at 3.6 million bales, up modestly from 3.5 million last season. Sluggish demand for U.S. cotton products was expected to limit the growth of domestic mill use.
The USDA will update its U.S. crop estimate at 11 a.m. CDT on Monday as part of its monthly supply-demand report.
Meanwhile, U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 364,600 running bales during the week ended Sept. 1, up from 325,800 RB the prior week, boosted 2016-17 commitments to 3.878 million RB. Upland sales of 344,500 RB were a new high since the week ended Jan. 29, 2015.
Commitments widened the lead over cumulative sales a year ago by 275,000 RB to 1.966 million RB or to 68% and reached 43% of the USDA export forecast. A year ago, commitments were 32% of final shipments.
All-cotton shipments rose to 230,800 RB from 212,400 RB, lifting the seasonΆs total to 965,200 RB and widening the gap over year-ago exports to 322,000 RB or to 50%. Shipments were 9% of the USDA estimate, compared with 7% of final 2015-16 exports at the corresponding point last year.
To achieve the USDA projection, shipments need to average roughly 212,300 RB a week, while weekly sales averaging approximately 131,500 RB would match the export estimate.
Sales for shipment next season of 18,900 RB brought 2017-18 commitments to 388,500 RB, up from 190,500 in forward bookings a year ago.
Futures open interest gained 647 lots Thursday to 232,936, with DecemberΆs down 49 lots to 155,518 and MarchΆs up 122 lots to 50,505. Cert stocks declined 2,198 bales to 41,056. There were 180 newly certified bales and 2,378 bales decertified.
