December posted highest intraday price since October and closed near there. U.S. old-crop export sales cancellations topped fresh sales. Stocks outside China projected at four-year low.
Cotton futures settled mixed on heavy volume Thursday, finishing sharply lower in old-crop deliveries and higher in new-crop contracts.
Spot May, which has lost its open interest lead to July, fell 142 points to settle at 89.02 cents, a new low close since March 5 and just off the low of its 225-point range from up 79 points at 91.23 to down 146 points at 88.98 cents.
July settled down 114 points to 90.29 cents, its lowest finish since March 14, and December gained 43 points to 80.84 cents, near the high of its 102-point range from 79.95 to 80.97 cents. December posted the highest intraday print since October.
Volume quickened to an estimated 56,700 lots from 46,463 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 30,346 lots or 65%, EFP 147 lots and EFS 58 lots. Options volume totaled 5,577 calls and 5,067 puts.
U.S. all-cotton 2013-14 export commitments declined 10,200 running bales during the week ended April 3 as cancellations for the first time this marketing year exceeded new sales.
The USDA left its export estimate unchanged at 10.7 million bales in this weekΆs supply-demand report, as expected because of the tightening balance sheet, though it boosted ChinaΆs imports by a million bales to 12 million, also as some observers had anticipated. The increase for China is linked to the likely release of new import quotas.
Export prospects rose by 700,000 bales to 4.5 million for Australia on increased demand from China, 500,000 bales to 8 million for India on higher import demand from Pakistan and 100,000 bales to 1.2 million for Burkina Faso on a larger crop.
Export estimates declined by 100,000 bales to 2.3 million for Brazil on limited exportable supplies and by 100,000 bales to 400,000 for Pakistan on higher mill use.
Import prospects also rose by 500,000 bales to 2.5 million for Pakistan on stronger demand and by 100,000 bales to 2.65 million for Vietnam on higher mill use. The import outlook declined 350,000 bales to 750,000 for India on recent trade data and 100,000 bales to 2.65 million for Indonesia on lower mill use.
Despite a record high global carryout, stocks held outside China are projected at a four-year low, USDAΆs Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report on world markets and trade.
Major exporters hold more than half those stocks. In fact, stocks in the United States, the largest cotton exporter, are forecast to fall to the lowest level since 1990-91 and the second lowest since 1950-51.
Driving that paradox is ChinaΆs export policy. Until recently, it was based on building stocks, which moved excess global supplies off the market and into the state reserve, effectively supporting world prices.
However, new policies to limit import opportunities and encourage reserve sales may halt additional accumulation of stocks by China next season. With world production expected to exceed consumption for the fifth consecutive year, efforts by China to dispose of state reserve stocks are likely to cause world prices to fall, USDA analysts say.
U.S. all-cotton shipments of 311,700 running bales during the latest reporting week boosted exports for the season to 7.202 million RB. This is 69% of the export forecast, compared with about 68% of final shipments at the corresponding point last season.
To achieve the estimate, shipments need to average roughly 198,600 running bales a week.
Futures open interest dropped 555 lots Wednesday to 183,613, with MayΆs falling 10,066 lots to 60,488, JulyΆs rising 8,177 lots to 72,530 and DecemberΆs climbing 1,280 lots to 45,776. Cert stocks grew 4,672 bales to 272,557. There were 2,893 bales awaiting review.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index fell 135 points Thursday morning to 93.50 cents. The premium to WednesdayΆs May futures settlement was unchanged at 3.06 cents.
Forward A Index values for 2014-15 gained 25 points to 88.85 cents, narrowing the premium on 2013-14 values by 160 points to 4.65 cents.