U.S. crop estimate for 2013-14 came in at the low end of expectations and the carryout unexpectedly low. World ending stocks projected at a staggering 79% of mill use, but the global carryout minus China pegged at only 29%.

Cotton futures gyrated widely on the heels of mixed readings of USDAΆs supply-demand reports and finished with sharp losses near midrange Friday.

Spot July settled off 144 points to 86.48 cents, slightly below the midpoint of its 243-point range from down four points at 87.88 to down 247 points at 85.45. Dollar strength also may have helped to grease the skid.

December closed down 119 points to 85.82 cents, about the middle of its 227-point range from up a tick at 86.97 to down 226 points at 84.70 cents. For the week, July still eked out a two-point gain and December rose 91 points.

The supply-demand reports showed U.S. production for 2013-14 at the low end of expectations and a lower-than-expected carryout. World ending stocks mushroomed to a staggering 78.7% of mill use. However, global stocks outside China are forecast at only 29.3% of world consumption.

Continuing light to moderate showers on the Texas High Plains also may have contributed to the pressure, though much more is needed. Amounts recorded by Texas Tech UniversityΆs West Texas Mesonet shortly before 1 p.m. CDT had ranged from a few hundredths of an inch to 88-inch near Plains in Yoakum County southwest of Lubbock.

Lubbock had received about a quarter inch and several sites measured around half an inch. A 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon is expected to diminish to 20% tonight. Mostly sunny to sunny conditions are forecast through the weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms returning on Tuesday.

Volume slipped to an estimated 19,800 lots from 21,177 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 5,663 lots or 27% and block trades were 30 lots. Options volume totaled 1,801 calls and 2,217 puts.

The USDAΆs initial U.S. forecasts for 2013-14 featured a 19% reduction in production from 2012-13 to 14 million bales off 8.4 million harvested acres, reflecting 16.3% abandonment from a prospective planted area — carried forward from the March intentions — of 10.03 million acres.

The production estimate is based on regional average abandonment and yields, USDA said. Abandonment in the Southwest is projected at 25% because of continued drought. The crop estimate is the same as that projected by USDA at its outlook conference in February.

Exports are forecast at 11.5 million bales, down 13% from 2012-13 owing to the smaller available domestic supply and lower imports by China. Domestic mill use is projected up 100,000 bales to 3.5 million.

Ending stocks are expected to fall a million bales to 3 million, equal to 20 percent of total use, well below the previous 10-year average and down from 24% in 2012-13.

The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is 68 to 88 cents, compared with 72 cents estimated for 2012-13.

For 2012-13, USDA nudged the crop estimate up to 17.32 million bales from 17.29 million foreseen a month ago, raised exports 250,000 bales to 13.25 million and cut ending stocks 200,000 bales.

The higher current-crop export estimate reflected recent activity and stronger expected imports by China, which were raised 1.75 million bales from last month to 18.25 million. IndiaΆs production and consumption rose by a million bales and 750,000 bales to 26.5 million and 22.75 million, respectively.

Globally, projections showed ending stocks surging 7.96 million bales from this seasonΆs carryout to 92.74 million in 2013-14, with ChinaΆs share rising to 63% from 57% now estimated for 2012-13. However, world stocks minus China are expected to fall 1.96 million bales next season to 34.56 million.

World production is projected to drop nearly 3% to 117.82 million bales, with reductions mainly in the United States, China, Turkey, Greece and Mexico partly offset by increases in Brazil, India, Pakistan and Australia.

Global consumption is expected to rise 2% to 110.43 million bales, linked to modest growth in the world economy, and trade is projected down 12% to 39.5 million bales as sharply lower imports by China and India are partially offset by increases for Pakistan, Turkey, Mexico and others.

ChinaΆs national reserve stocks are expected to reach nearly 40 million bales by the end of 2012-13, USDA said. Based on ChinaΆs current reserve purchase and release prices, USDA is projecting that China will import 12 million bales in 2013-14 and will add 10 million bales to ending stocks as reserve purchases exceed reserve sales.

Futures open interest expanded 2,541 lots Thursday to 180,064, with JulyΆs up 1,494 lots to 120,380 and DecemberΆs up 961 lots to 56,719.

Certificated stocks grew 2,181 bales to 497,739. There were 3,785 newly certified bales, 1,604 bales decertified and 12,616 bales awaiting review.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index edged up 10 points Friday morning to 95.10 cents. The premium to ThursdayΆs July futures settlement narrowed 14 points to 7.18 cents. For the week, the A Index gained 160 points.