December cotton closed sharply lower as speculators liquidated their massive long positions amid new sanctions on China. Tuesday, the Trump Administration implemented a 10% tariff on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, with a promise to add the other 15% later in the calendar. China responded with a $60 billion tariff of her own on U.S. imports.
These actions caused the ICE Futures to breakout of their longstanding sideways congestion pattern, thus discouraging would be buyers and certainly encouraging new short sellers. Tuesday’s estimated volume stands at 57,000, which essentially equals the volume of August 3. However, prior to that, the next largest single day volume occurred on June 13, after the market had topped, but was dialing in the initial Trump tariffs.
To close under the 80-cent mark has to be psychology bearish to the market’s sentiment. However, December cotton is very oversold, meaning a small recovery bounce is possible. Yet, given the steepness of Tuesday decline, expect some margin call selling to occur during Wednesday’s session.
December cotton settled 7852, down 279, March cotton ended at 7913, off 259, and December 2019 finished 7601, down 147.