DTN Cotton Close: Skids to More New Lows

DTN Cotton Close: Skids to More New Lows

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U.S. new-crop export commitments reached 36% of USDAΆs 2014-15 forecast, up 1.307 million bales from forward sales a year ago. Shipments climbed to 99% of the estimate for 2013-14.

Cotton futures settled sharply lower Thursday, never trading on the plus side in benchmark December and falling to a new contract low and contract low close.

December closed down 113 points to 62.87 cents, in the lower third of its 172-point range from unchanged at 64 cents to 62.32 cents. It lost 1,064 points for the month or 14.5%.

Nearby October lost 125 points to close at 62.09 cents and March fell 133 points to finish at 63.51 cents. Heavy losses on Wall Street may have contributed to the cotton pounding.

Volume declined to an estimated 23,900 lots from 17,310 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 5,938 lots or 34% and EFP 208 lots. Options volume totaled 7,272 calls and 8,069 puts.

Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season and next slowed to 260,400 running bales during the week ended July 24 from 373,200 bales the previous week, USDA reported.

New-crop sales at a still sizable 254,700 bales, though down from 372,400 bales, boosted 2014-15 commitments to 3.603 million, widening the lead over forward sales a year ago by 205,000 bales to 1.307 million.

Commitments reached 36% of the USDA forecast, not counting unshipped sales from the 2013-14 marketing year which will be rolled into the new marketing year. A year ago, forward commitments were 23% of the current 2013-14 estimate.

Old-crop sales of 5,700 running bales, up from all-cotton net sales the prior week of 800 bales, nudged 2013-14 commitments to 10.81 million bales, 106% of the USDA estimate. Outstanding sales declined to 728,600 running bales from 843,500 bales.

All-cotton shipments rose to 120,600 running bales from 73,200 bales, hiking exports for the season to 10.081 million, 99% of the estimate. Roughly 104,000 bales remained to be shipped to make the forecast.

Futures open interest declined 790 lots Wednesday to 160,422, with DecemberΆs down 1,662 lots to 122,141 and MarchΆs up 557 lots to 29,173. This was the first decline since July 15.

Certificated stocks fell 9,528 bales to 136,608, down from 455,532 bales a month ago and the lowest since January.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index dropped 80 points Thursday morning to 79.60 cents. The premium to WednesdayΆs October futures settlement widened 30 points to 16.26 cents.

Forward A Index values for 2014-15 slipped 50 points to 73.25 cents, narrowing the discount to the 2013-14 index by 30 points to 6.35 cents and widening the premium to WednesdayΆs December futures close by 51 points to 9.25 cents.

For the month, the 2013-14 index lost 995 points or 11.1% and the 2014-15 index fell 890 points or 10.8%.

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