DTN Cotton Close: Skids To Sharp Losses In Brisk Dealings

DTN Cotton Close: Skids To Sharp Losses In Brisk Dealings

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December closed at its lowest finish since Jan. 28. Despite growing season problems, cotton on the Texas High Plains reported looking promising. Time frames noted for export sales reports.

Cotton futures tumbled to sharp closing losses in brisk dealings Wednesday, taking out a widely watched chart support area on the way down.

Spot December shed 176 points to close at 80.69 cents, in the lower reaches of its 232-point range from up 39 points at 82.84 to down 193 points at 80.52 cents. The low was DecemberΆs lowest intraday price since Feb. 4 and the close the lowest finish since Jan. 28. December skidded through a support zone from 82.11-81.72.

March lost 145 points to close at 82.27 cents as the December-March spread widened to a settlement carry of 158 points.

Ongoing generally favorable U.S. harvest weather, continued growth in certificated stocks, apparently little fresh business lately and technical considerations contributed to the losses.

Volume surged to an estimated 38,800 lots from 11,898 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 4,616 lots or 39%, EFP 69 lots and EFS 66 lots. Options volume jumped to 9,915 calls and 1,281 puts.

Despite a lot of problems through the growing season, cotton on the Texas High Plains “looks very promising,” Mark Kelley, AgriLife Extension Service cotton specialist at Lubbock, said in an extension report.

The region had a cool spring, late spring freezes and remained locked in drought by mid-summer. Hail, high winds and blowing sand contributed to heavy abandonment estimated at 1.96 million acres or 52% of the planted area. And many replanted dryland fields were late, bumping against crop insurance planting deadlines.

Then cold weather arrived early, with freezing or near-freezing conditions shutting down late-set boll development on late-planted cotton that really could have used another couple of weeks and warmer temperatures to finish out, the agronomist said.

The first fall freeze was registered as early as Oct. 4 at some northern cotton points, and Lubbock got its first official freeze at 32 degrees for a short time on Saturday, Oct. 19. Normal first dates in the Lubbock territory range from Oct. 18 in the north to Oct. 31 in the central area and Nov. 4 at Lamesa to the south.

The cold weather “means any boll maturation is done, so weΆre just waiting for harvest aids to go out and dry those plants down to get them ready for stripper harvest,” Kelley said.

Yet early yield reports have been encouraging.

“I have heard of some very good yields coming out of the better-irrigated cotton,” Kelley said. “Some producers south of Lubbock actually made the one-ton club or harvested four bales per acre. I heard another producer making 2-1/2 bales per acre, and that wasnΆt on his better stuff. His better stuff is yet to be harvested.

“We were fortunate enough that after we got through all the bad weather, and the issues getting started, we had some pretty decent cotton-growing weather and were able to stick a lot of the early season fruit and take it to the gin.”

Dryland cotton could have used another rain toward the end of the season, around the first of August, he said. But in areas where farmers got some decent rains, Kelley said he had heard reports of 500 to 550 pounds per acre.

“ThatΆs on some really good dryland,” he said. “On the rest of it, IΆm hearing 250 pounds — a half bale per acre.”

Early reports on quality also have been good. But some of the later-planted cotton may have low micronaire, a measure of fiber fineness or maturity. This also can affect boll weights.

The USDA last month forecast a High Plains crop of 2.5 million bales, down 15% from last seasonΆs 2.947 million bales. Yields were projected at 667 pounds per harvested acre, up from 608 pounds in 2012-13.

Meanwhile, the U.S. export sales-shipments report scheduled for release at 7:30 a.m. CDT on Thursday is expected to include data for the week ended Oct. 3. The report was delayed by the government shutdown.

All sales reported from Oct. 4-24 will be included in the data released Oct. 31 by USDAΆs Foreign Agricultural Service.

Futures open interest dipped 119 lots Tuesday to 202,364, with DecemberΆs down 781 lots to 115,293 and MarchΆs up 457 lots to 65,202.

Certificated stocks grew 8,163 bales to 94,501. Cotton awaiting review rose to 40,187 bales, including 4,864 bales at Galveston, 12,307 bales at Greenville and 23,016 bales at Memphis.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index dropped 50 points Wednesday morning to 88.90 cents. The premium to TuesdayΆs December futures settlement widened 11 points to 6.45 cents.

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