DTN Cotton Close: Slides to Another Contract Low

DTN Cotton Close: Slides to Another Contract Low

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July expired at 74.97 cents. Traders awaited the weekly export-sales shipments report on Thursday and the updated supply-demand estimates on Friday.

Cotton futures lost ground for the seventh session in a row and 10th in the last 11, basis benchmark December, which settled on another contract low close Wednesday.

December settled off 43 points to 69.67 cents, in the lower quarter of its 118-point range from up 58 points at 70.68 to down 60 points at a new intraday low for the move at 69.50 cents.

July expired at 74.97 cents, down three points and 530 points over December. October posted the only closing gain, settling up 46 points to 70.55 cents, 88 points over December.

Volume slowed to an estimated 14,300 lots from a final 19,701 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 3,550 lots or 18% and EFP 71 lots. Options volume totaled 2,192 calls and 2,373 puts.

Traders awaited USDAΆs weekly export sales-shipments report at 7:30 a.m. CDT on Thursday and the updated supply-demand estimates at 11 a.m. CDT on Friday.

New-crop upland sales for the week ended July 3 are expected to be up from the previous weekΆs 59,700 running bales, but with prices on a losing streak many mills were said to be looking ahead to lower values.

With 2013-14 commitments as of June 26 at 105% of last monthΆs estimate and shipments ahead of the pace needed to reach the projection, a slight increase could be seen in the old-crop export forecast.

The USDAΆs June estimate rose slightly from the previous month — not by as much as expected — to 10.5 million statistical bales, down 2.5 million bales from the prior season because largely of limited supply.

The 2013-14 supply is firmly established as the smallest in three decades at 16.8 million bales — beginning stocks of 3.9 million bales and production of 12.91 million bales.

An increase in the export estimate with no change in the domestic mill use forecast would be expected to result in a corresponding slight decrease in ending stocks for 2013-14 and beginning stocks for 2014-15.

Ending stocks for 2013-14 were estimated last month at 2.7 million bales, lowest in three seasons and the second lowest since 1995-96, with the stocks-to-use ratio of 19.1% also the lowest and second lowest in those time frames.

As noted previously, USDA for 2014-15 is widely expected to cut its U.S. acreage abandonment estimate and raise its production forecast. An increase also could be seen in the export forecast but ending stocks also are expected to rise to the largest since 2008-09.

Futures open interest fell 1,426 lots Tuesday to 145,672, with JulyΆs down 453 lots to 1,255, DecemberΆs down 1,268 lots to 118,401 and MarchΆs up 215 lots to 20,047.
Certificated stocks declined 8,628 bales to 409,284. There were 5,941 bales newly certified, 14,569 bales decertified and 17,846 bales awaiting review.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index held steady Wednesday morning at 85.25 cents. The premium to TuesdayΆs July futures settlement narrowed 17 points to 10.25 cents.

Forward A Index values for 2014-15 also were flat at 77.90 cents, leaving the discount to the 2013-14 index at 7.35 cents and widening the premium to TuesdayΆs December futures close by 11 points to 7.80 cents.

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