DTN Cotton Close: Slight Old-Crop Losses

DTN Cotton Close: Slight Old-Crop Losses

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Growing global systemic risk kept a lid on the rally. U.S. all-cotton weekly export sales at a crop year high of 504,800 running bales boosted 2013-14 commitments to about 81% of the USDA estimate.

Cotton futures settled with slight old-crop losses after an early surge on much higher-than-expected U.S. weekly export sales faded.

Spot March closed off 12 points to 87.21 cents, in the lower half of its 170-point range from a three-session low at 86.49 cents to 88.19 cents, four ticks above ThursdayΆs high.

March shot to the high in a heartbeat when USDA released the weekly export sales data and spent the rest of the day chopping back and forth. It ticked last at 87.01 cents.

The May contract also settled off 12 points, closing at 87.49 cents, while July dipped 13 points to 87.41 cents and December fell 77 points to 78.54 cents. For the week, the market gained 41 points in March, 44 points in May and 105 points in July, while December lost 134 points.

Growing global systemic risk, spurred by a flight from emerging market assets, helped to cap the early rally. U.S. stocks fell sharply, with growth concerns in China and expectations that the Federal Reserve will trim its stimulus measures further contributing to the pressure.

Volume climbed to an estimated 26,600 lots from 21,973 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 10,357 lots or 47% and EFP 22 lots. Options volume totaled 5,019 calls and 3,753 puts.

Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for delivery this season of 504,800 running bales during the week ended Jan. 16 boosted commitments to 8.205 million, about 81% of USDAΆs January forecast. A year ago, commitments were about 78% of final shipments.

Sales surged from 239,700 bales the previous week to the highest of the marketing year, not counting the rollover back in August of unshipped sales from last season. Outstanding optional origin sales of 17,200 bales were unchanged on the week and were down from 261,000 a year ago.

China remains the largest all-cotton customer, accounting for 24% of the commitments, followed by Turkey, 21%; Mexico, 12%; Vietnam, 8%; Indonesia and Thailand, 6% each; and South Korea, 5%. Peru, Taiwan and Pakistan have bought about 2% each.

All-cotton shipments of 247,300 running bales, up from 230,900 bales the week before, brought the total for the season to 3.65 million. This is about 36% of the USDA estimate, compared with about 34% of final exports at the corresponding point last season.

To achieve the USDA forecast, all-cotton shipments need to average roughly 242,000 running bales a week during the remaining 27 weeks of the season, while sales averaging 73,300 bales would match the estimate.

Sales for shipment in 2014-15 also hit a high for the season at an all-cotton total of 57,200 running bales, against 9,300 bales the previous week. This hiked new-crop commitments to 367,100 bales, narrowing the gap behind forward bookings a year ago to 203,500 bales.

Futures open interest expanded 2,682 lots Thursday to 188,541, with MarchΆs up 427 lots to 108,907 and MayΆs up 1,200 lots to 40,788. The total was up 7,338 lots from a week ago.

Certificated stocks continued to grow, rising 2,293 bales — 702 at Dallas-Fort Worth and 1,591 at Memphis — to 71,471.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index fell 50 points Friday morning to 93.75 cents. The index premium to ThursdayΆs March futures settlement inched up a point to 6.42 cents. For the week, the index gained 115 points.

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