New-crop contracts eked out small gains. U.S. prospective plantings estimated up 6.7% from last year to 11.101 million acres, at the low end of the range of expectations. Drought in the Texas High Plains could affect abandonment.
Cotton futures settled with slight losses in old-crop deliveries and eked out small gains in new-crop contracts Monday.
Spot May reversed off a three-session high to close at 93.52 cents, in the lower half of its 229-point range from up 106 points at 94.80 to down 123 points at 92.51 cents. It finished up 638 points or 7.3% for the month and up 912 points or 10.5% for the year.
July settled down six ticks at 93.55 cents, a few points below the midpoint of its 2l3-point range, while December edged up seven points to finish at 80 cents, eight ticks off the high of its tight 67-point range.
Volume totaled an electronically estimated 19,800 lots, against a cleared 19,291 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 8,483 lots or 44%, EFS 2,170 lots and EFP 273 lots.
U.S. all-cotton plantings are expected to total 11.101 million acres, up 6.7% from last yearΆs 10.407 million but down 9.9% from 12.314 million acres two years ago, USDA said. The acreage was at the low end of the range of predominant expectations from 11 million to 11.5 million acres.
Upland intentions are up 7.2% from last year to 10.943 million acres but down 9.4% from 12.076 million acres in 2012, while prospective Pima plantings are down 21.4% from 2013 to 158,000 acres.
Growers in Texas intend to plant 6.4 million acres of upland, up 600,000 acres or 10.3% from last year but down 155,000 acres or 2.3% from 2012. These intended acres are 58.5% of the U.S. upland intentions.
By regions, prospective upland acres showed declines from last year of 2.4% to 2.602 million acres in the Southeast and 16.1% to 245,000 acres in the West, with expansions expected of 16.6% to 1.44 million acres in the Mid-South and 10.7% to 6.656 million acres in the Southwest.
A key question now will be prospective abandonment, especially in the Texas High Plains, where drought has have intensified. All-cotton abandonment last year totaled 26% nationally and 53% on the High Plains.
With one day left in the month and no rain in sight for the remainder of the week, 2014 precipitation at Lubbock through Sunday had totaled a mere 0.33 of an inch.
This is down from a normal of 2.46 inches and from 2.23 inches through the corresponding period last year. This January-March period is among the driest since the devastating drought of the 1950s when the first 90 days brought just 0.10 inch in 1954 and 0.15 inch in 1959.
Dry, westerly winds and warm temperatures will produce critical fire weather conditions in much of the region Monday through Thursday, forecasters say. Blowing dust is expected each day.
Meanwhile, U.S. upland cotton growers had forward contracted about 176,691 acres coming into March, down from 498,558 acres booked a year earlier, according to informal surveys by the cotton division of USDAΆs Agricultural Marketing Service.
Producers had contracted about 155,241 acres in the Southeast and around 21,450 acres in the Mid-South. No acreage was under contract in the Southwest or Far West.
Futures open interest fell 1,008 lots Friday to 182,857, with MayΆs down 2,542 lots to 96,594, JulyΆs up 1,459 lots to 43,194 and DecemberΆs up 35 lots to 39,302. Cert stocks were unchanged at 254,283 bales.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index gained 80 points Monday morning to 98.10 cents. The premium to FridayΆs May futures settlement narrowed 38 points to 4.36 cents.
