U.S. all-cotton 2015-16 export commitments reached 56% of the USDA forecast as the lag behind year-ago bookings widened. Competitive price gap narrowed.

U.S. cotton futures finished slightly in the red Thursday, losing upside momentum after edging up to a six-session high.

• Spot March settled down 24 points to 61.90 cents, in the lower reaches of a tight 71-point range from down 39 points at 61.75 to up 32 points at 62.46. It snapped a three-session string of higher closes.
• May closed down 33 points to 62.27 cents, while December dropped 38 points to settle at 62.71 cents.
• Volume dipped to an estimated 23,859 lots from 25,024 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 10,048 lots or 44% and EFP 30 lots. Options volume totaled 2,588 calls and 985 puts.

Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 198,100 running bales during the week ended Jan. 7, up from 92,200 RB the previous week and a six-week high, hiked 2015-16 commitments to 5.464 million RB.

But the lag of commitments — outstanding sales plus shipments — behind year-ago bookings still widened 249,000 RB to 2.653 million RB or to 33%. Commitments were 56% of the USDA estimate, compared with 74% of final shipments at the corresponding point last season.

All-cotton shipments fell to an eight-week low to 84,700 RB, down from the prior week’s 172,200 RB, and nudged the total for the season to 2.524 million RB. The gap behind exports a year ago widened to 240,000 RB or to 9%.

With 29 weeks left in the marketing year, shipments amounted to 26% of the USDA projection, compared with 25% of final exports a year ago.

To achieve the USDA forecast, shipments now need to average roughly 247,500 RB a week, while sales averaging approximately 146,100 RB would match the export projection.

Sales for shipment next season of 7,800 RB raised 2016-17 commitments to 749,100 RB, widening the lead over forward bookings a year ago to 185,700 RB.

On the competitive-pricing front, the average of the five lowest-quoted world growths for the Far East dropped 70 points to 66.65 cents during the week ended Thursday, according to USDA calculations, while the lowest-priced U.S. cotton landed there fell 110 points to 70.65 cents.

The premium for U.S. cotton thus narrowed 40 points to 4 cents. The adjusted world price for the program week beginning Friday is 46.90 cents, down from 47.60 cents, resulting in marketing loan gains rising to 5.10 cents from 4.40 cents.

The fine count adjustment for 2015-crop qualities better than 31-3-35 will be 78 points. This can further reduce the AWP to reflect differences in premiums in the U.S. and international markets.

Futures open interest declined 927 lots Wednesday to 181,667, with DecemberΆs down 1,144 lots to 15,722 and MarchΆs up 425 lots to 6,168 lots. Cert stocks dropped a bale to 64,141 bales. Eighty-eight bales awaited review.