U.S. all-cotton export commitments stand at 53% of the USDA 2014-15 forecast. Cumulative shipments of 607,900 running bales trailed year-ago exports of 1.162 million RB.
Cotton futures closed lower Thursday amid broad losses in commodities after the Federal Reserve offered guidance the prior day on its plans to increase interest rates.
Benchmark December closed down 63 points to 65.05 cents, in the lower half of its 116-point range from up 15 points at 65.83 to down 101 points at 64.67 cents and an eight-session low finish. March settled down 62 points to 64.96 cents.
October, which has swung over a 340-point point range from WednesdayΆs high to ThursdayΆs low, settled down the 300-point daily limit at 66.90 cents. With first notice day looming on Wednesday, OctoberΆs open interest coming into the session was only 162 lots (16,200 bales).
While the Fed retained guidance that short-term interest rates will remain near zero for a “considerable time” after the bond-buying program ends, expected next month, its rate projections for 2015 and 2016 shifted up notably and a new forecast for 2017 also showed high numbers, reports noted.
Volume rose to an estimated 20,900 lots from 10,330 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 2,555 lots or 25% and EFP 24 lots. Options volume totaled 829 calls and 9,510 puts.
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 80,000 running bales during the week ended Sept. 11, against net cancellations the prior week of 31,800 RB, boosted commitments to 5.169 million RB.
Though upland sales of 75,000 RB were down 34% from the previous-four week average, export business picked up during a reporting week in which December futures closed higher four consecutive sessions and posted its highest settlement since July 14.
Commitments — outstanding sales plus shipments — are 1.151 million RB or 29% ahead of bookings a year ago and are 53% of the USDA export projection. A year ago, commitments were 39% of final shipments.
The USDAΆs September supply-demand report projected 2014-15 exports at 10 million statistical 480-pound bales, down 530,000 bales or 5% from last season.
All-cotton shipments of 108,600 running bales, up from the prior weekΆs 85,100 bales, brought the total for the season to 607,900 RB, down from 1.162 million RB a year ago. Shipments have been hampered by the tight availability of uncommitted supplies.
To achieve the USDA estimate, shipments now need to average roughly 197,700 running bales a week, while sales averaging around 98,700 RB would match the export projection.
Futures open interest gained 722 lots Wednesday to 182,006, with DecemberΆs up 528 lots to 108,957 and MarchΆs up 120 lots to 55,910. Stocks in deliverable position declined 3,427 bales to 44,513.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index edged up 10 points to 74.05 cents, narrowing the premium to WednesdayΆs December futures settlement by three points to 8.37 cents.
