DTN Cotton Close: Snaps Four-Session Losing Streak

DTN Cotton Close: Snaps Four-Session Losing Streak

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Unpriced on-call mill position in old-crop contracts still far outweighed that of producers. Smaller crop and larger consumption projected in India in 2014-15.

Cotton futures snapped a four-session losing streak Friday, closing with a strong gain for the day but a weekly loss for the first time in five weeks.

Spot May closed up 142 points to 92.40 cents, in the upper half of its 243-point range from down 18 points at 90.80 to up 225 points at 93.23 cents. The high was precisely even with TuesdayΆs high.

July also gained 142 points to close at 92.67 cents and December added 48 points to 79.92 cents. For the week, May dropped 134 points, July slipped 94 points and December eased a single tick.

Volume quickened from a slow start to reach an electronically estimated 23,615 lots, against a final total of 23,035 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 12,859 lots or 56% and EFP 590 lots.

Unpriced on-call positions in old-crop contracts fell 2,351 lots to 42,458 on the mill side and 461 lots to 3,351 lots on the producer side last week, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

This reduced the net call difference by 1,890 lots to a still hefty 39,107 lots (3.91 million bales), which amounted to 27.98% of the open interest, against 28.32% a week earlier. The ratio of the unfixed mill position to that of producers widened to 12.67:1 from 11.75:1.

In the May contract, mills priced 2,139 lots and producers 251 lots to reduce their unfixed positions to 14,734 lots and 1,494 lots, respectively. With first notice day looming on April 24, the unfixed mill position outweighed the producer holdings by 9.86:1.

Producers boosted their open position in December by 1,316 lots to 18,606, while mills nudged theirs up four lots to 9,713.

On the international scene, IndiaΆs 2014-15 cotton production is forecast at 28 million 480-pound bales, down a million bales from this season, the U.S. agricultural attach said in a report.

The projected cotton area of 11.8 million hectares (29.158 million acres) is the third highest on record. Yields are expected to drop closer to recent averages following the strong performance of the 2013 monsoon.

Consumption is expected to increase to 23.5 million bales as yarn exports and strong domestic demand steer cotton to IndiaΆs growing textile sector. Exports are forecast 25% lower at 6 million bales.

Exportable supplies are believed likely to compete more directly with domestic demand as supplies tighten in response to lower production. India has emerged as a significant regional exporter and supplier of cotton to China in recent years.

With regional exports expected to continue around current levels, Chinese demand and trade policies likely will have a significant impact on IndiaΆs overall 2014-15 export volumes, the report indicated.

India has ranked as the worldΆs second largest cotton producer and consumer behind China and the second largest cotton exporter behind the United States.

Futures open interest dropped 162 lots Thursday to 183,544, with MayΆs down 2,829 lots to 82,879, JulyΆs up 2,191 lots to 54,809 and DecemberΆs up 446 lots to 41,596. Certificated stocks grew 9,895 bales to 264,301.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index fell 60 points Friday morning to 94.70 cents. The premium to ThursdayΆs May futures settlement narrowed seven points to 3.72 cents. For the week, the index lost 260 points.

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