Nearby tightness of available cotton largely blamed for anemic U.S. export sales rather than weak demand. Shipments have reached about 97% of the USDAΆs 2012-13 estimate.
Cotton futures touched session highs in the late going and settled near there with slight gains Thursday on this first day of the 2013-14 marketing year.
Benchmark December closed up 25 points to 85.43 cents, six ticks off the high of its 115-point range from down 84 points at a 10-session low at 84.34 cents to up 31 points at 85.49 cents, a point shy of WednesdayΆs inside-range high.
Lightly traded October also gained 25 points, settling at 85.88 cents, and March eked out a five-point gain to close at 83.58 cents, 108 points from the low of its 113-point range.
Volume increased to an estimated 16,600 lots from 14,601 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 4,108 lots or 28%, EFS 88 lots, block trades 40 lots and EFP 4 lots. Options volume totaled 3,055 calls and 2,527 puts.
Net U.S. old-crop export sales of all cotton of 32,300 running bales during the week ended July 25 nudged 2012-13 commitments up to 13.627 million RB, up 933,000 bales or about 7% from a year ago and about 106% of USDAΆs July estimate. A year ago, commitments were about 112% of final exports. Outstanding 2012-13 sales declined to 1.098 million RB.
Nearby tightness of available cotton rather than weak demand has been largely blamed for anemic sales along with a late new crop of uncertain size and quality. Achieving USDAΆs July crop forecast of 13.5 million bales may be difficult, some respected cotton analysts say.
All-cotton net sales of 50,000 bales for shipment in the marketing year that began Aug. 1 brought 2013-14 commitments to 2.295 million RB, widening the gap behind forward sales a year ago to 609,000 bales.
The new-crop commitments were about 22% of the latest USDA projection, compared forward sales a year ago of about 23% of the current 2012-13 export estimate.
All-cotton shipments of 103,200 running bales lifted exports for the season to 12.528 million RB, narrowing the lead over exports a year ago by 207,000 bales to 1.243 million or to 11%.
The USDAΆs 2012-13 export estimate of 13.3 million 480-pound statistical bales is up 13.6% from the previous season. Shipments have reached about 97% of the USDA forecast, against 99% of final exports at the corresponding point the prior year.
With six days left in the 2012-13 marketing year, roughly 373,000 running bales remained to be shipped to achieve the USDA forecast. Exports thus appeared likely to fall short of the estimate.
Futures open interest expanded 1,428 lots Wednesday to 170,806, with DecemberΆs up 884 lots to 145,187 and MarchΆs 503 lots to 18,321.
Certificated stocks fell 69,949 bales to 71,848, smallest since Dec. 3, 2012, according to exchange data. No cotton awaited review.
New-crop world values as measured by the Cotlook A Index dipped 10 points Thursday morning to 91.10 cents after the old-crop index finished the 2012-13 marketing year at a 130-point premium. The 2013-14 index premium to WednesdayΆs December futures settlement narrowed 14 points to 5.92 cents.
