DTN Cotton Close: Steep Losses on Wall Street

DTN Cotton Close: Steep Losses on Wall Street

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Steep losses on Wall Street weighed on cotton. Survey of analysts and traders showed expectations for a boost in U.S. cotton plantings from a 32-year low.

U.S. cotton futures fell to a new low close for the move Wednesday, with spot March never trading above unchanged throughout the session.

March closed down 68 points to 62 cents, its lowest finish since Nov. 24 and in the lower quarter of its 82-point range from unchanged at 62.68 to 61.86 cents. Important chart support is seen at 61.45.

Steep losses on Wall Street amid fresh worries about the global economy, heightened geopolitical concerns and a sharp fall in oil prices weighed on cotton sentiment.

May settled down 70 points to 62.75 cents, while December dropped 63 points to close at 63.63 cents.

Volume quickened to an estimated 32,862 lots from 17,141 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 6,594 lots or 38%, EFP 111 lots and EFS 90 lots. Options volume totaled 3,945 calls and 8,317 puts.

Traders took note of a Reuters report that U.S. farmers are expected to increase cotton plantings in 2016 from their smallest acreage in more than three decades after fiber prices gained last year, outperforming the biggest commodities rout in years.

Producers in the United States, the worldΆs top cotton exporter, are expected to plant the fiber crop on 9.7 million acres this year, up 13% from 2015, according to the median of 14 estimates compiled by Reuters.

That still is below recent historical averages as concerns linger about demand from top consumer China where bumper inventories have kept pressure on prices over the past two years, the Reuters report noted.

But after rising 5% in 2015, cotton was one of the few commodities to end the year higher, escaping the broad losses seen in the bellwether 19-component Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index.

Farmers last year switched to more lucrative crops, such as grains, as cotton prices languished near 2009 lows and as rains in key regions caused planting issues.

The current outlook suggests a reversal this year as huge supplies have caused prices of crops like corn, soybeans and sorghum to drop, the Reuters survey of analysts and traders indicated.

Yet a cotton price recovery is broadly expected to be muted, with supplies remaining high even as demand is poised to outpace production for the first time in six years.

The survey estimates ranged from 9 million to 11 million acres, up from 2015 plantings of 8.56 million acres.

An earlier survey of producers across the belt by Cotton Grower magazine showed intentions to plant cotton on 9.085 million acres, up 5% from last year.

Meanwhile, some trade estimates for U.S. upland export sales to be reported by USDA on Thursday for the week ended Dec. 31 range from 75,000 to 150,000 running bales, compared with 106,700 RB the previous week.

Upland sales the last four reporting weeks have averaged 100,787 RB and shipments have averaged 122,459 RB, both below the pace needed to achieve the USDA export estimate.

Futures open interest increased 530 lots Tuesday to 185,123, with MarchΆs down 186 lots to 121,475 and MayΆs up 191 lots to 32,725. Cert stocks dropped 48 bales to 64,292.

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