U.S. all-cotton plantings forecast at 9.459 million acres by Informa. Outdoor operations remained at a standstill in most areas of the soggy South Delta. ChinaΆs imports last month fell 65% from February 2015. Cert cotton damaged.
Cotton futures rebounded strongly Monday from prior-session losses, with spot May rallying from a shallow dip to close back above its 18-day moving average but still below ThursdayΆs low.
May settled up 101 points to 58.17 cents, in the upper third of its 152-point range from down 10 points at 57.06 to up 142 points at 58.58 cents. It traded within FridayΆs range. July closed up 102 points to 58.08 cents and December finished up 101 points to points to 57.91 cents.
Talk of some fresh export business over the weekend amid tight availability of U.S. higher qualities offered support. Traders noted that the combined net short position held by non-commercials and non-reportable traders in futures-only reached a record high 32,142 lots in futures-only as of March 15.
Volume slipped to an estimated 23,633 lots from 25,347 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 9,497 lots or 37% and EFP 219 lots. Options volume totaled 540 calls and 519 puts.
U.S. all-cotton plantings are estimated at 9.459 million acres by Informa Economics, Memphis-based analytical firm, sources said.
This compares with 9.4 million acres projected by USDA at its Outlook Forum, up about 800,000 acres or nearly 10% from last year and 300,000 acres or 3% above an earlier National Cotton Council survey.
The USDA attributed the increase mainly to a return of area prevented from planting last season by excessively wet conditions as well as slightly more favorable prices for cotton against alternative crops.
Adverse weather prevented the planting of more than 500,000 acres intended for cotton in 2015. And while cotton prices have fallen from year-ago levels, prices for such alternative crops as corn, soybeans and sorghum also are lower.
Informa is said to have projected upland plantings at 9.28 million acres, up 10.2% from USDAΆs estimated 8.422 million acres for 2015. Results of USDAΆs first survey of producer planting intentions will be released March 31.
Meanwhile, outdoor operations in most areas of the South Delta have remained at a standstill until water could move off submerged fields.
A total of about 25 inches of rain had fallen over a period of a few days by early in the reporting week ended Thursday, according to a cotton review issued Friday by USDAΆs Agricultural Marketing Service.
Clear and warm conditions prevailed during the remainder of the period. Fieldwork was underway on high ground and on fields with light-textured soils.
Producers were concerned that flooded acreage already planted to corn may have to be replanted. With the cotton-planting season rapidly approaching, questions have been raised about a potential shift of some flooded acres intended for corn into the fiber crop.
On the international scene, ChinaΆs cotton imports totaled 56,231 metric tons (258,264 480-pound bales) in February and 153,812 tons (697,260 bales) in the first two months of 2016, down 65% and 53% from the comparable periods a year ago, respectively.
Imports the first seven months of the 2015-16 marketing year stood at approximately 586,000 metric tons or around 2.691 million bales, about 54% of USDAΆs latest estimate of 5 million bales. The USDA estimate is down 40% from the prior-year imports and from 5.75 million bales foreseen at the beginning of this crop year in August.
Futures open interest gained 547 lots Friday to 213,421, with MayΆs up 928 lots to 115,395 and JulyΆs down 479 lots to 46,870. Cert stocks declined 5,643 bales to 49,067.
The exchange said the operator of a licensed warehouse in Memphis reported that 3,211 bales of certified cotton were stored in a compartment where a pipe burst and damaged about 970 bales. The extent of the damage was still being assessed.
