DTN Cotton Close: Subdued Session Ends Slightly Higher
DTN Cotton Close: Subdued Session Ends Slightly Higher

DTN Cotton Close: Subdued Session Ends Slightly Higher

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Many traders appeared concentrating on USDA’s supply-demand report set for release on Friday. Monthly world cotton estimates expected by some to show smaller 2017-18 production and ending stocks.

Cotton futures meandered within tight price ranges and settled on slight gains in most contracts in subdued trade action Tuesday.

Spot March edged up 21 points to close at 78.35 cents, in the middle of its 67-point range from 78.03 to 78.70 cents. It remained within Monday’s inside-day range.

May settled up 22 points at 78.69 cents, also near the middle of its 61-point range between 78.35 and 78.96 cents, and July finished up 18 points at 79.03 cents, trading within a 51-point range between 78.75 and 79.26 cents.

The other contracts settled up 18 points to down one point. December, the only contract to trade beyond July, inched up eight points to close at 74.72 cents.

Many traders appeared concentrating on USDA’s updated supply-demand forecasts, scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST on Friday, and the weekly U.S. export sales-shipments report on Thursday.

Volume slowed to an estimated 27,723 lots from 32,958 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 18,508 lots or 56%, EFS 79 lots and EFP 45 lots. Options volume slipped to 8,127 lots (3,984 calls and 4,143 puts) from 18,344 lots (5,604 calls and 12,740 puts).

Looking ahead, some analysts expect world cotton 2017-18 estimates in USDA’s monthly supply-demand report to show a reduction in ending stocks, based on lower production and a small adjustment in consumption forecasts.

The USDA last month projected global stocks at 88 million bales, down 350,000 bales from last season. Despite the slight increase, world stocks are well below the massive supplies at the end of 2014-15, USDA noted.

Higher stocks were forecast in a number of countries, led by rises of more than 3 million bales in the United States and 2 million bales in India. The projected carryout of 13.18 million bales in India would amount to 15% of global stocks. The crop estimate for India, where pink bollworms damaged both yields and quality in some areas, will be watched.

At the same time, stocks in China were expected to continue the decline that began in 2015-16, falling 8.75 million bales to 39.67 million or 45% of the world total. Although still the largest stockholder by far, China’s share would be its lowest since 2011-12.

In contrast, Brazil, with the third largest stocks, was projected to carryover a record 8.28 million bales at the end of the season, more than 9% of the global total. High qualities there are said to have come in below expectations, contributing to a favorable U.S. basis.

With world stocks outside China projected at a record 48.33 million bales, USDA expected world 2017-18 values as measured by the Cotlook A Index to decrease about 7% from last season to 82.80 cents.

In a monthly review, Cotton Outlook said global stocks outside China are expected to increase by slightly more than 2 million metric tons (9.19 million 480-pound bales) from a year ago, in line with the growth estimated by USDA.

Futures open interest gained 518 lots to 286,837 on Monday, with March’s down 1,959 lots to 170,859 and May’s up 1,125 lots to 56,271. Certified stocks remained at 47,665 bales.

Πηγή: Agfax

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