DTN Cotton Close: Takes Wild Ride to Lower Finish

DTN Cotton Close: Takes Wild Ride to Lower Finish

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A marketing year high in U.S. all-cotton weekly export sales lifted 2016-17 commitments to 93% of the USDA forecast. China’s 2017-18 ending stocks could fall 19% to less than half the world total, ICAC says.



Cotton futures took a wild ride Thursday, surging to some new contract highs on the back of robust U.S. weekly export sales and reversing to a triple-digit closing loss in benchmark May.

May settled down 108 points to 76.78 cents, in the lower quarter of its 286-point range from up 132 points at 79.18 cents to down 154 points at 76.32 cents. It punched a new contract high about an hour after release of the export sales report and the low — holding above the prior-day low — about 3-1/2 hours later.

Maturing March settled down 116 points at 75.69 cents. July fell 87 points to close at 77.86 cents after hitting a new contract high at 79.97 cents. December slipped 15 points to settle at 74.75 cents, in the upper half of its 119-point range from a new contract high at 75.19 to 74 cents. It closed above its old contract high of 74.60.

Volume rose to an estimated 55,613 lots from 39,428 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 16,110 lots or 41%. Options volume increased to 11,603 lots — 4,209 calls and 7,394 puts — from 6,445 lots.

Net U.S. all-cotton sales for shipment this season jumped to a marketing year high of 489,900 running bales during the week ended Feb. 23, up from 380,700 RB the previous week.

This lifted 2016-17 export commitments to 11.509 RB, widening the lead over year-ago cumulative sales by 300,400 RB or to 4.548 million RB or to 65%. Commitments were 93% of the USDA export forecast, compared with 78% of final 2015-16 exports a year ago.

All-cotton shipments remained strong at 327,000 RB, though down from 355,600 RB the previous week. Shipments for the season rose to 6.578 million RB, 2.714 million RB or 70% above exports a year ago. Shipments were 53% of the USDA projection, up from about 44% of 2015-16 exports at the corresponding point last season.

To achieve the forecast, shipments now need to average roughly 260,900 RB a week over the 22 weeks remaining in the marketing year, while sales averaging around 36,800 RB weekly would match the export estimate.

Upland sales of 62,900 RB for shipment next season brought sales for both marketing years to a bulging 552,800 RB. Commitments for 2017-18 reached 1.062 million RB, up from forward sales a year ago of 923,000 RB.

In its March supply-demand report, the International Cotton Advisory Committee says ChinaΆs ending stocks could fall by 19% to 7.5 million metric tons (34.4 million 480-pound bales) at the end of 2017-18.

This would amount to 45% of the ICAC estimate of world 2017-18 ending stocks and mark the first season since 2011-12 that ChinaΆs stocks would have accounted for less than half of world inventories.

However, world ending stocks outside China are forecast to grow by 7% to 8 million tons (36.7 million bales), which ICAC says could exert downward pressure on prices later this season.

ChinaΆs total stocks, including those in the private sector, are forecast at 9.3 million tons (42.7 million bales) at the end of 2016-17, 53% of world stocks. Global 2016-17 stocks are expected to decline 7% to 17.9 million tons (82.2 million bales), which would be 74.4% of mill use.

China is set to begin daily auctions from its massive government-held reserves on Monday. The government will offer around 30,000 tons (137,800 bales) through Aug. 31. More cotton may be put up for auction if sales are strong and market prices rise.

Futures open interest expanded 5,090 lots to 271,469, with MarchΆs down 20 lots to 81, MayΆs up 2,134 lots to 164,036, JulyΆs up 402 lots to 51,348 and DecemberΆs up 2,451 lots to 49,020. Cert stocks were unchanged for a second day at 525,590 bales.

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