Rain chances for the weekend eyed on the Texas Plains. U.S. all-cotton export commitments widened the lead over year-ago bookings to 2.13 million RB and reached 47% of the USDA forecast.
Cotton futures settled mixed Thursday, with benchmark December confined to the trading range that had been established just prior to release of the U.S. weekly export sales report.
December closed up nine points to 71.71 cents, around the middle of its 116-point range from down 42 points at 71.20 to up 74 points at 72.36 cents. It printed a new intraday high since Aug. 12 and has regained on a closing basis half the August decline.
October lost 64 points to close at 71.17 cents, March edged up nine points to 71.82 cents and December 2017 dipped 13 points to 71.32 cents.
Volume slipped to an estimated 25,902 lots from 28,285 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 7,561 lots or 27%, block trades 250 lots and EFS 16 lots. Options volume totaled 21,064 lots — 10,826 calls and 10,238 puts.
Traders are keeping an eye on weather forecasts, with increasing rain chances in store this weekend for the Texas High and Rolling Plains where the cotton crop needs continued warm, sunny weather to promote boll maturity and facilitate applications of harvest-aid chemicals.
Rain chances in the Lubbock area are forecast at 20% Friday night, 40% Saturday and 50% Sunday, with showers lingering into Monday. Temperatures, which have been unseasonably warm under sunny skies, are expected to decline to a high Monday of 69 degrees and a low Monday night around 46 degrees.
Temperatures lately have ranged from daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with nighttime lows around the middle 60s. Long-term averages for the date at Lubbock are high-lows of 83 and 57 degrees.
Meanwhile, net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 214,200 running bales during the week ended Sept. 15, up from 148,200 RB the previous week, boosted 2016-17 commitments to 5.205 million RB, according to USDAΆs weekly report.
Commitments widened the lead over year-ago cumulative sales by 114,000 RB to 2.127 million RB or to 69% and totaled 47% of USDAΆs export projection. A year ago, commitments were 35% of final 2015-16 exports.
All-cotton shipments rose to 165,700 RB from 131,500 RB, bringing the total for the season to 1.263 million RB and widening the lead over year-ago shipments by 51,000 RB to 438,000 RB. Shipments were 11% of the USDA forecast, compared with 9% of final 2015-16 exports at the corresponding point last season.
To achieve the USDA estimate, shipments now need to average roughly 215,100 RB, while weekly sales averaging approximately 129,400 RB would match the export projection.
Net sales for shipment next season fell to 1,800 RB from 26,200 RB, nudging 2017-18 commitments up to 416,500 RB, compared with forward bookings a year ago of 210,100 RB.
Futures open interest continued to expand Wednesday, rising 3,964 lots to 243,386, with DecemberΆs up 2,948 lots to 161,196 and MarchΆs up 263 lots to 49,949. Certificated stocks increased 892 bales to 33,554. There were 901 newly certified bales and nine bales decertified. Awaiting review were 90 bales.
