Traders tweaked positions ahead of the supply-demand report. Weekly export sales topped expectations by a wide margin and boosted commitments to 66% of the forecast. Shipments reached 26% of the 2016-17 projection.
Cotton futures settled on modest gains Thursday as traders tweaked positions ahead of the monthly supply-demand report and digested USDAΆs weekly report showing export sales and shipments at marketing year highs.
March settled on a six-session high close, up 37 points to 71.42 cents, around the middle of its 105-point range from down 15 points at 70.90 cents to up 90 points at 71.95 cents.
The May contract added 27 points to close at 71.69 cents, while December 2017 edged up 13 points to finish at 69.88 cents.
Volume rose to an estimated 21,604 lots from 16,690 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 5,792 lots or 35% and EFP 49 lots. Options volume totaled 2,494 calls and 2,778 puts.
Most trade estimates appear for a slight increase in U.S. production and perhaps in exports as well with little change in ending stocks in the December supply-demand report.
Traders have heard crop estimates ranging from 15.9 million to 16.6 million bales, compared with USDAΆs November forecast of 16.16 million bales and the 2015-16 output of 12.89 million.
The report is set for release at 11 a.m. CST on Friday. World production also may be adjusted slightly upward with possibly a small uptick in cotton consumption based on Asian demand, some analysts say.
U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season topped expectations by a wide margin, rising to 409,400 running bales during the week ended Dec. 1 from 207,200 RB the previous week and boosting 2016-17 commitments to 7.662 million RB.
The lead over year-ago commitments widened by 324,000 RB to 2.841 million RB or 59% and to 66% of USDAΆs export forecast. A year ago, commitments were 54% of final 2015-16 shipments.
Upland sales of 405,200 RB, up 200% from the prior week and 93% from the four-week average, were the largest since Jan. 29, 2015. The sales went to 18 countries, headed by Vietnam, Turkey, China, Japan and Bangladesh.
All-cotton shipments of 237,700 RB, up from 145,800 RB the prior week, brought the total for the season to 2.996 million RB, widening the lead over year-ago exports by 122,000 RB to 1.14 million RB or 61%.
Shipments were 26% of the USDA projection, compared with 21% of final 2015-16 exports at the corresponding point last season.
Upland shipments of 229,700 RB, up 75% from the previous week and 85% from the four-week average, were the largest since June 30 and were to 25 countries. The top destinations were China, Vietnam, Turkey, Pakistan and Thailand.
To achieve the USDA estimate, all-cotton shipments need to average roughly 247,000 RB per week over the remaining 35 weeks in the marketing year, while weekly sales averaging around 113,700 RB would match the export forecast.
Futures open interest dropped 815 lots Wednesday to 250,587, with MarchΆs down 732 lots to 177,174 and MayΆs up 131 lots to 39,698. Cert stocks declined 3,428 bales to 58,646. There were 2,026 newly certified bales and 5,454 bales decertified. Awaiting review were 614 bales at Memphis.