Variable rainfall topped at 3.79 inches east of Lubbock. Skimpy amounts reported in some key dryland areas. Import estimate for China still may be understated. Bigger Brazilian crop forecast.
Cotton futures tumbled to sharp losses Friday amid reports of beneficial rains on the prime cotton area of the Texas High Plains and more on the way.
Spot July closed down 147 points at 86.31 cents, in the lower half of its 291-point range from up 39 points at 88.17 to down 252 points at 85.26 cents. It triggered sell stops on the way down, falling to the lowest intraday price since Feb. 4 and the lowest close since Feb. 26.
December settled down 126 points to 79.47 cents, also in the lower half of its 359-point range from up 27 points at 81 cents to down 232 points at 78.41 cents. This was its lowest close since March 3.
The market lost ground for the third consecutive week, dropping 351 points or 3.9% in in July, the largest loss since October, and 126 points in December.
Rainfall amounts from midnight to about 12:40 p.m. CDT in the cotton area of the Texas High Plains topped at 3.79 inches near Ralls in Crosby County east of Lubbock. Reese Center just west of Lubbock recorded 1.49 inches and Slaton to the southeast got 2.31 inches.
However, skimpy amounts also were reported from some key dryland areas. Lamesa in Dawson County south of Lubbock received only 0.01 of an inch, OΆDonnell in Lynn County reported 0.33 inch and nearby Tahoka got 0.54 inch.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Lubbock area are 20% tonight, 50% Saturday and 30% Sunday and Monday. A slight chance lingers into Tuesday.
Volume rose to an electronically estimated 34,900 lots from a final 31,483 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 8,246 lots or 26%.
On the competitive-pricing front, the average of the five lowest-quoted world growths for the Far East fell 86 points to 90.25 cents in the week ended Thursday, according to USDA, while the lowest-priced U.S. cotton of comparable quality landed there slid 180 points to 96.85 cents.
The premium for U.S. cotton thus narrowed 94 points to 6.60 cents. The adjusted world price for the week ahead is 70.01 cents, according to USDA announced, down from 70.87 cents this week.
The much-larger-than-expected U.S. export sales to China reported this week are believed to have been linked to quality considerations and new import quotas under which mills can qualify to import a ton of foreign cotton for every four tons purchased from the government stockpile.
Some trade analysts also believe the USDA estimate of ChinaΆs 2013-14 imports remains understated after a 750,000-bale jump this month to a projected 12.75 million, up from just 11 million bales forecast in March.
ChinaΆs imports of 1.029 million bales in April brought the total for the first nine months of the marketing year to 10.95 million bales. This indicates imports totaling 1.8 million bales the next three months or an average of 600,000 bales per month would match the USDA estimate.
Meanwhile, Brazil plans to stock 512,800 metric tons (2.355 million bales) to supply the domestic industry and secure exports for about four months, the National Supply Co. of Brazil (CONAB) has indicated.
A CONAB survey of crops for the 2013-14 season projected BrazilΆs cotton production at 1.65 million tons (7.579 million bales). The state of Mato Grosso is expected to produce 925,200 tons (4.249 million bales), about 56% of the national output.
The USDA this month estimated the Brazilian crop at 7.5 million bales, up from 6 million bales last season, and forecast exports at 2.3 million bales, down from 4.31 million bales in 2012-13. For 2014-15, USDA projected the crop at 8.3 million bales and exports at 3.5 million.
Futures open interest dipped 297 lots Thursday to 190,301, with JulyΆs down 1,724 lots to 109,665 and DecemberΆs up 1,070 lots to 71,464. Certificated stocks grew 2,079 bales to 431,160. There were 5,416 newly certified bales, 337 bales decertified and 4,580 bales awaiting review.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index fell 150 points Friday morning to 90.85 cents. The premium to ThursdayΆs July futures settlement widened a point to 3.07 cents.
Forward A Index world values for 2014-15 dropped 115 points to 88.80 cents, narrowing the discount to the 2013-14 index by 35 points to 2.55 cents and leaving the premium to ThursdayΆs December futures close unchanged at 7.57 cents.