U.S. 2016-17 export commitments maintained a lead of 5.7 million running bales or 70% over cumulative sales a year ago. Shipments remained ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA estimate.
Cotton futures settled on triple-digit losses in old-crop contracts Thursday, tumbling to a 10-session low close in July on the heels of U.S. weekly export sales coming in below most expectations.
July shed 143 points to close at 77.96 cents, its lowest finish since April 13 and near the low of its 151-point range from down three points at 79.36 to down 154 points to 77.85 cents.
Maturing May closed down 137 points to 79.32 cents, trading within a 68-point range from 79.91 to 79.23 cents. December lost 70 points to settle at 74.30 cents, in the lower third of its 100-point range from 75.01 to 74.01 cents.
Volume slowed to an estimated 21,928 lots from 25,914 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 7,587 lots or 29% and EFS 49 lots. Options volume increased to 7,647 lots (5,070 calls and 2,527 puts) from 2,326 lots (836 calls and 1,490 puts).
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 121,400 running bales during the week ended April 20, down from 237,000 RB the previous week, brought 2016-17 commitments 13.813 million RB.
Upland net sales of 115,500 RB, down from 61% from the four-week average, were the smallest since the week ended Sept. 22, prior to active movement to market of the 2016 crop.
Still, commitments maintained a lead of 5.703 million RBs or 70% over year-ago bookings and were nearly 102% of the USDA export forecast. A year ago, commitments were 91% of final 2015-16 shipments.
All-cotton shipments of 317,900 RB, down from 367,200 RB the prior week, lifted the total for the season to 9.872 million RB, up 4.121 million RB or 72% from exports a year ago.
Exports were 73% of the USDA projection, compared with 65% of final shipments at the corresponding point last season. To achieve the USDA estimate, shipments need to average roughly 264,900 RB a week over the 14 weeks remaining in the marketing year.
All-cotton sales for next season of 72,800 RB, down from 118,300 RB the week before, brought the total for both crop years to 194,200 RB. Commitments for 2017-18 rose to 2.248 million RB, widening the lead over forward bookings a year ago to 1.092 million RB.
Tightening “free” U.S. supplies, higher prices during the reporting week and mills beginning to look ahead to expanded plantings and production expected for next season contributed to the price skid.
Rising futures open interest at elevated price levels amid a large spec net long position reported earlier in the week had prompted some trader caution.
Open interest grew 5,028 lots Wednesday to 252,911, with MayΆs down 51 lots to 146, JulyΆs up 3,134 lots to 136,829 and DecemberΆs up 1,669 lots to 101,882. Open interest was up 24,704 lots from a week ago.
Certificated stocks grew 980 bales to 300,078. There were 2,296 newly certified bales and 1,316 bales decertified. Awaiting review were 1,327 bales — 97 bales at Galveston and 1,230 bales at Memphis.
