U.S. all-cotton commitments reached 87% of USDAΆs 2015-16 export estimate and shipments 60%. Increased shipments forecast for most major exporting countries.
Cotton futures finished mixed Thursday, with most-active July completing an inside-range day with a fractional loss to snap a string of three higher closes in a row.
July closed down eight points at 64.01 cents, in the upper half of its 159-point range from up 48 points at 64.57 cents to down 111 points at 62.98 cents. It posted the high overnight and the low not quite an hour and a half after release of the USDA weekly export-sales shipments report.
May, with only one trading session now left before first notice day, settled down 31 points to 63.49 cents. December finished up 41 points to 62.70 cents, its highest close since Jan. 22.
Volume slowed to an estimated 45,059 lots from 54,725 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 18,278 lots or 33% and EFP 621 lots. Options volume totaled 9,460 calls and 8,610 puts.
U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 117,900 RB during the week ended April 14, up from 99,200 RB the previous week, brought 2015-16 commitments to 8.035 million RB.
Commitments — outstanding sales of 2.543 million RB plus shipments — trailed year-ago bookings by 2.357 million RB or 23%. Cumulative sales were 87% of the USDA export estimate, compared with 95% of final shipments a year ago.
All-cotton shipments of 211,400 RB, up from 196,200 RB the prior week, boosted the total for the season to 5.492 million RB, lagging year-ago exports by 1.491 million RB or 21%. Shipments were 60% of the forecast, compared with 64% of final 2014-15 exports at the corresponding point last season.
To achieve the USDA projection, shipments need to average roughly 248,200 RB a week during the remaining 14 weeks of the marketing year, while weekly sales averaging approximately 78,700 RB would match the export forecast.
Net sales for shipment next season of 21,100 RB, up from 19,700 RB the week before, hiked 2016-17 commitments to 1.151 million RB. The lead over year-ago forward sales narrowed 46,000 RB to 110,000.
The USDAΆs 2015-16 export forecast remained at 9.5 million statistical 480-pound bales this month, down 16% from 11.25 million last season and the lowest since 2000-01. The reduction is attributed largely to smaller production, which has limited exportable supplies.
With lower shipments, the U.S. share of global trade is projected at 27%, compared with nearly 32% last season.
Increased shipments are forecast for most major exporting countries. The USDA projects exports up 37% for India to 5.8 million bales, 15% for Australia to 2.8 million, and 10 percent for Brazil to 4.3 million.
World cotton trade is projected at 34.8 million bales, about 2% below the previous season and 25% lower than the 2012-13 record of 46.5 million. Lower imports by China have largely reduced the amount of cotton traded over the last several seasons, although increases by a number of other countries have partially offset ChinaΆs reduction.
China is forecast to import only 5 million bales, compared with 24.5 million four years ago. Bangladesh is expected to become the leading cotton importer this season, taking in 5.65 million bales, as its textile industry continues to expand.
Futures open interest fell 3,499 lots Wednesday to 189,939, with MayΆs down 4,258 lots to 5,425 and JulyΆs down 1,707 lots to 35,377. Cert stocks grew 1,496 bales to 43,936.
