By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

The cotton market finished lower Monday, as into the waning moments of the trading session, both crop seasons settled in negative territory. Traders are awaiting any meaningful forthcoming news to further influence prices either higher or lower. A bit of such news comes this afternoon when USDA releases its weekly crop progress data. Given the severity of the drought gripping West Texas, participants are eager to see if that weather event is being borne out in the government numbers.

Another anticipated report for this week will be Thursday’s weekly export sales. Although last week’s sales showed triple digits, the market was actually anticipating even stronger business. Still, current seasonal sales are at 95% of USDA target. The new target now reflects the increase in exports (15.75 mb) from the April crop report.

Returning to weather, the forecast for West Texas looks hot, dry and bleak. Based on the immediate situation, West Texas cotton producers are staring at a potential season of low yields and high abandonments.

This Friday is the last day before spot May enters its delivery period. Regarding the spread between the May and July contracts, it would appear there is no pent-up demand being signaled that a strong hands taker is waiting in the wings. Yet, during the notice period, anything can happen.

Monday, May cotton closed at 83.26, down 0.45 cent, July settled at 84.71 cents, down 0.32 cent and December ended at 82.50 cents, down 0.03 cent; estimated volume was 31,079 contracts.