By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

After several wobbly intrasession moves, the cotton market did manage to higher close Tuesday. Volume of an estimated 67,075 contracts, which was not as steep as Monday’s volume, was a supportive amount.

Overall, the market is coming to obvious terms with its two crop years. Old-crop May cotton has eight days until its notice period (delivery), vehicle new-crop December is just underway. Although the widespread fundamentals of weather, supply-demand, the U.S. dollar, and souring Chinese relations generally affect the entire complex, some carry a greater emphasis on one crop year over the other.

Thursday, USDA will issue its latest export-sale amounts. As current season sales stand, they are 104% of the government’s original target. Thus, if additional bullish weekly sales are done, then the government may be forced to hike exports another 250,000 bales, perhaps to 16.00 million.

The U.S. dollar was lower Tuesday as traders took profits from its recent rally. The market originally bottomed in January as fear of rising interests over too much government stimulus rallied prices. Recently, the dollar has posted a four-month high.

Tuesday, May cotton closed at 81.82 cents, up 1.68 cents, July settled at 83.19 cents, plus 1.68 cents and December ended at 81.46 cents, up 1.02 cents; estimated volume was 67,075 contracts.