By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

The cotton market is just now waking up to the lower production estimates issued by the ICAC in the last few days. Basically, the quasi-governmental agency is calling for world production to fall some 9%. Given those decreases are expected to occur in consuming countries that rely on domestic production to feed their mills, global trade is projected to rebound in 2021 to 9.3 million metric tons. Currently, the group projects the world’s top exporters, the USA and Brazil, are estimated to see 45% and 17% increases this year. If USDA proportionally confirms the analysis on its next crop report, cotton will have reasons to possibly trade higher.

Friday, options on the March contract expire and the Labor Department will issue its monthly jobs report in the morning. The latter is expected to show a 50,000-plus gain in non-farm employment. Last month was a negative 145,000 job loss.

Next Tuesday, USDA will issue its latest supply/demand estimates for the U.S. and the world. Traders are expecting ending stocks for both entities to decline.

Heading into Friday, spot March is up 3.64 cents on the week and up 6.16 cents on the year.

Thursday, March cotton closed at 84.28 cents, up 3.29 cents, July settled at 86.21 cents, up 3.01 cents and December cotton ended at 81.07 cents, up 2.16 cents; estimated volume was 103,190 contracts.