By JOSIE MUSICO
A-J MEDIA

With the cotton market down at the moment, when will it rebound?

ItΆs hard to know when, but safe to say it wonΆt be tomorrow.

Any changes in market could relate to El Niño patterns, said John Robinson, an economist for Texas A&M AgriLife. His presentation Tuesday morning was among several others at AgriLifeΆs “Seeking Solutions: Managing Economic Risks” meeting.

“I donΆt think thereΆs gonna be much on the demand side. ItΆs gonna be influenced by weather,” he told a group of farmers and farm industry representatives.

El Niño is associated with a band of warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This year, itΆs brought heavier than normal precipitation to the U.S., giving South Plains farmers some relief.

But across the ocean, El Niño can actually mean dryer weather, Robinson said.

Say, for example, a drought arises in India, another cotton-producing country. A drop in the global supply could follow, which would help boost prices for surviving cotton bales.

“If the world takes a hit because of dry weather, that would be the thing that would give you a higher pricing opportunity,” Robinson said.

The supply side, though, is still heavy, at least in China. The Chinese stockpiled massive amounts of cotton a few years ago. Now, that country still has most of those bales, but doesnΆt seem to increasing the stockpile.

“ChinaΆs still holding onto this big pile of reserves, but theyΆre not adding to it,” Robinson said.

josephine.musico@lubbockonline.com