Agriculture economists looking ahead at the next decade predict good news for the South Plains' cotton producers, the local economy and your closets.
Darren Hudson, director of Texas Tech's Cotton Economics Research Institute, predicted a rise in cotton prices and production for both the U.S. and world cotton markets.
"From the low 50s to the mid-80s in six months is pretty good recovery," he said. "We're forecasting at the end of the 10-year average around 82-83 cents. So, you know, it's a pretty steady increase over time."
As of Tuesday, the National Cotton Council reported the latest world market cotton price was 79.73 cents per pound. In the NCC's monthly reports, the average January price was 77.39 cents; it was 57.60 cents the same time last year.
The high current prices are the result of a decrease in U.S. cotton supply and a rise in demand as countries emerge from the recession, he said.
In the USDA's 2008 Texas upland cotton production statistics, Texas contributed to more than a third of the nation's 2008 overall production. The High Plains district - more than 30 counties in the Panhandle and West Texas - produced about 66 percent of the state's cotton, which is turned into clothes, diapers and fabrics.
This month, Hudson and four members of his research institute published their analysis, "Global Cotton Baseline: 2009/10-2019/20." Projections are based on weather patterns and trade policies, among other economic factors.
Similarly, the USDA last month released its own 2019-20 agricultural report that said cotton exports, prices and supply will grow.
However, Jackie Smith of the Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center said right now, farmers are mainly concerned with the December futures prices (New York Cotton Exchange's projected December 2010 prices), not long-term projections.
"Based on current prices and expected levels of supply and demand, it appears that for the 2010 cotton crop, South Plains farmers should receive as much as 60 cents per pound for their cotton," he said in an e-mail.
Richard Adams, a cotton farmer in Acuff, said the high cotton prices and the unusually wet weather have been very encouraging.
"Prices are up more than they've been in the last 20 years," he said. "The price definitely does help - it gives you more incentive to grow cotton."
According to the NCC's February 2010 Cotton Market Report, Texas is expected to see an 8.3 percent increase in cotton acreage planted this year.
With pre-plant moisture and cotton prices in their favor, Adams said producers will not feel as pressured to cut back on expenses.
Although Smith also felt area farmers will likely plant more cotton this year, he said they are only planning how much they will plant for the 2010 crop and not for production a year or 10 years later.
