John Robinson, Extension economist, cotton marketing, Texas AgriLife Extension 

USDA’s month-over-month adjustments in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report reflected modest tightening for the 2025-26 world cotton balance sheet.

Supply-side adjustments included a million fewer bales of beginning stocks, mainly in China, compared to the August numbers. On the other hand, world production was raised by roughly a million bales, month over month, as increases in India, China and Australia outweighed decreases in Turkey, Mexico and West Africa. World imports were 130,000 bales greater compared to the previous month, as reductions in India and China were outweighed by increases in Turkey, Mexico and Vietnam.

On the demand side, world consumption was raised 831,000 bales compared to August, mostly in China. World exports were raised 110,000 bales to somewhat balance the increase in world imports. The bottom line was that the larger positive demand changes dominated the small supply-side increases, giving a modest 770,000-bale cut in world ending stocks, month over month.  Such an adjustment would normally be neutral, according to economic theory and history.

The September WASDE report showed very minor supply-side adjustments to the U.S. new crop balance sheet, compared to the previous month’s numbers. U.S. beginning stocks were unchanged. Slightly higher U.S. planted acreage (20,000 additional acres), essentially the same abandonment and a 1-pound reduction in yield per harvested acre all combined to increase U.S. production by 10,000 bales to 13.22 million.