From USDA
USDA released its initial world and U.S. cotton outlook for the 2021/22 season in February at the Agricultural Outlook Forum. World consumption is expected to exceed production for the second year in a row, reducing world stocks by 3.2 million bales. World cotton production is expected to rise 4.7 percent with the most significant year-over-year growth in Pakistan, Australia, Brazil, the United States, and West Africa.
Global consumption is expected to grow by 4.1 percent, substantially above the longterm average rate of 1.7 percent, as the world economy recovers from the severe 2020 downturn (current International Monetary Fund estimates for global growth are -3.5 percent for calendar year 2020).
Strong cotton consumption growth in 2021/22 and tightening stocks are expected to support prices with the A-Index forecast up 7 cents to 90 cents/pound for the marketing year. If realized, this would be the highest in 8 years.
Initial 2021/22 balance sheets were published for two countries – the United States and China. Production in the United States is up 17 percent to 17.5 million bales as planted area remains stable and abandonment declines on the assumption of normal weather.
However, weather conditions, especially in Texas, provide significant downside risk. Consumption is expected to rise to 2.5 million bales, but still nearly 500,000 bales lower than 3 years prior; exports are expected to remain at 15.5 million bales. As a result, ending stocks are forecast at 3.8 million bales, a 5-year low.
China’s 2021/22 imports are forecast at 11.0 million bales, unchanged from the previous year’s level, which was the highest level in 7 years. Further growth in yarn and fabric production, coupled with lower domestic production, is expected to maintain strong imports in addition to the State Reserve maintaining an optimal level of government-held stocks comprised of both imports and domestic supplies.
China’s consumption is projected to increase at a rate below the world average due to above average growth in 2020/21. China realized an earlier recovery from the impacts of COVID-19 relative to other major consumers, with the resultant 2020/21 consumption growth rate above the world average.
Πηγή: Agfax